The EUR/USD is going to be interesting to trade over the next couple days. With the S&P downgrading Greece to Selective Default and the German parliament voting overwhelmingly to give Greece the next bail out things are only going to get more dodgy with the LTRO tomorrow (the 29th) and the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) [...]
Fx Commentary EUR/USD February 27, 2012
February 27, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Its not very often I add a news source to my long list of providers. With Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, Forex factory and most often Zero Hedge I have plenty of places to keep me up to speed on the news. However recently one of the contributors to ZH wrote a great piece that I admired [...]
Forex EUR/USD Commentary February 24, 2012
February 24, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
So all is good in the world as of yesterday. The EUR/USD rallied well above 1.3300 and will most likely challenge 1.3400 today. US unemployment claims were outstanding and the US 7yr treasury auction went off without a hitch. Even the German IFO business climate numbers were much better than expected. Plus the S&P and [...]
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY trades February 21, 2012
February 23, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Today was a great trading day. Of course I did the same thing as always and waited for the SM to show the trap move after the accumulation and got short the GBP/USD from 1.5854. It even came back and gave me a chance to add to the position which I didnt take because I [...]
GBP/USD Forex Trade February 20, 2012
February 23, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Trading the GBP/USD was the wrong choice for today given the fact that the EUR/USD made a nice 70+ pip move while the Cable just meandered around but thats forex trading for you. Facing the fact your not going to catch every move is part of becoming successful. No big deal. Even though I did [...]
Fx Commentary EUR/USD and GBP/USD February 23, 2012
February 23, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Today I want to give everybody a break on the Greek ordeal other than to say Fitch came out and downgraded them yesterday. It seems they are most often late to the party. Oh well at least they still get to have some fun. LOL You know that things dont look so rosy when the [...]
Day Trade EUR/USD February 17, 2012
February 22, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
This EUR/USD trade was a great level 2 trade even though I missed the first entry. I should have made over 60 pips which would have been 3 t0 1 on my 20 pip risk but I did manage to get 30 of those pips so not a bad day at all. Again I was [...]
EUR/USD Day Trades February 16, 2012
February 22, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Here are my EUR/USD day trades from Thursday Feb 16th. We feel its just as important to post the losers as well as winners and this day I took 2 trades and lost a total of 25 pips for the day. As you can see I initially had the direction right for the long but [...]
Forex Commentary EUR/USD February 22, 2012
February 22, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
In todays commentary I wont mention that we have the Greek deal. Mainly because even though its made muster with the EZ finance ministers there are still some road blocks ahead check out these two articles from Zero Hedge. One describes how the PSI hold outs could still derail the whole thing and the other [...]
EUR/USD Forex Commentary February 21, 2012
February 21, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
As I mentioned in yesterdays forex commentary the IMF had began working on the estimates for the Greek debt to GDP and had come out with a preliminary estimate of 129% by 2020. ( I was off by 6% but does it matter?) I tend to agree with an article I read yesterday that pointed out [...]
Fx EUR/USD Commentary February 20, 2012
February 20, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
As I was talking to one of our students over the weekend he asked me what I thought the Euro would do this week. I told him I expected a gap up and a push considering what I just saw. I had been reading up on the market developments over the weekend and it sure seems [...]
Forex EUR/USD Commentary February 17, 2012
February 17, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
So now all is good in the world and the rally is back. Well not so fast. Of course we had the direction of the market right yesterday as we tracked the Smart Money but they had a bit more whipping of stops to do than I thought and they of course got me. As [...]
EUR/USD Day Trade February 15, 2012
February 16, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
The trading day didn’t start off so well with an aggressive entry and a -15 pip hit. However it ended great with 2 positions. One getting stopped by a couple pips at +58 pips and the other I closed manually when I got up this morning for +105 (orders slip below). I was very confident in this [...]
EUR/USD Fx Commentary February 16, 2012
February 16, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
I cant help but notice all the BS that has been floating around the markets yesterday. All of a sudden again China is going to help the EZ by investing in the EFSF. At the same time the Chinese say that investing in European bonds is a risky sell to investors. Of course its in China’s interests [...]
Fx Commentary EUR/USD February 15, 2012
February 15, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Well guys Greece is not out of the woods yet. They are seemingly falling off the radar but still being watched. Yesterday the leader of the EZ finance ministers Jean-Claude Junker said Greece hasnt yet met all the conditions to get the bail out. Then I read other news about the debt write down that the camp [...]
Recent Trade February 13, 2012 EUR/USD
February 14, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
This turned out to be a beautiful trade but took for ever to show me the money. The first entry was taken after the 2 pins to the high of the day but was a bit aggressive and I did take a 20 pip hit on the first position. The darn thing got me by [...]
Recent Trade February 8, 2012 EUR/USD And GBP/USD
February 14, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
These 2 trades turned out very well. Looking at the Euro chart first it had made a 3 level rise from the lows of Asia. (notice there are no red candles but 2 hesitations where the SM was absorbing stops) The 2 leg reversal candles were not the prettiest candle formation however at the same time [...]
Forex Commentary EUR/USD February 14, 2012
February 14, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
First off I should apologize for skipping yesterdays commentary. I thought since I put out a weekly wrap up that I would give Greece a break and you guys for that matter. I received a lot of emails asking what happened so I am sorry and it wont happen again. Anyway I think you will enjoy todays. WE HAVE [...]
EUR/USD Commentary Weekly Review February 11, 2012
February 11, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
I usually dont do a weekly review for the forex market commentary unless its warranted and this week it is. I had to laugh when Steve commented on yesterdays commentary when he said “Greek deal? Yea riiiiight” I have really no choice to agree with Steve in that the “deal is on” then “the deal [...]
EUR/USD Forex Commentary February 10, 2012
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So now we have a debt deal for Greece. Yee Haw! Or do we have a deal? Something in my gut tells me it has more prospect to be a deal in words only but lets enjoy the fact that Greece will not be in the title of three quarters of the news I read. [...]
Non-Farm Payroll – Should You Trade Forex News?
February 9, 2012 by · 1 Comment
The debate over trading forex news is something that has been around for a while, and now a days it gets a bit more attention. Many say that the markets reaction to economic data has become unpredictable and therefore you should avoid it all together. Those on the other side of the argument suggest that [...]
Fx Commentary EUR/USD February 9, 2012
February 9, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
In todays commentary Im going to give you all a break on Greece and we are going to discuss France where they have a presidential election coming up. Its sure looking as tho Sarkozy is going to lose. After being second only to Burliscony on pilfering his countries bank account for his personal benefit. It [...]
Fx EUR/USD commentary February 8, 2012
February 8, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
All seems well in the world judging by the 150+ pip rise in the Eur/Usd yesterday. However as I go through all my news feeds I really dont see that much has changed. The Greek deal still hasnt been finalized and they just keep postponing the political parties meeting. There was some talk from the [...]
EUR/USD Fx commentary February 7, 2012
February 7, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
The Euro yesterday was plagued with rumors about rumors on the Greek fiasco. First the politicians are blowing past the deadline. Then they say there was no deadline LOL. They are holding steadfast on not implementing wage and bonus reforms. Then they are giving in. What strikes me as funny is I expected when I got up this morning there [...]
Forex commentary EUR/USD February 6, 2012
February 6, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
With Fridays Non Farm payroll numbers in the past its back to trading as usual . However there are many questions to be answered considering the much better than expected numbers. The fact is the Bureau of Labor Statistics did change the way they figure the NFP numbers by using census data they accumulated in 2010. [...]
Forex EUR/USD commentary February 3, 2012
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Happy NFP day everyone. Pretty much as I expected yesterday was fairly muted and the Euro was in a 50 pip range until the Chinese stepped in and said they are looking at dumping cash into the ESM and EFSM to help the Euro Zone. However that 50 pip spike was quickly squashed by none [...]
Fx commentary EUR/USD February 1, 2012
February 1, 2012 by · Leave a Comment
Again the Eur/Usd commentary is started with Greece in the cross hairs. I know it seems to be beating a dead horse but we simply cant ignore what is going on since the abrupt changes are happening left and right. Yesterday the Greek PM called an emergency meeting with his cabinet. The Troika is standing firm that Greece [...]
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Forex Commentary EUR/USD February 29, 2012
The EUR/USD did not act quite as expected yesterday although my short did run 60 pips before it came back to hit me break even. I expect this V bottom on the 15 minute chart during the US session was due to the US consumer confidence being better than expected and the euphoria of the [...]