Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD November 22, 2013
As we were going over the price action on the EUR/USD in the London session room yesterday. I mentioned the possibility of the EU having a 3 push in one day move and now that has been confirmed with the first intraday push to the upside. I will have a slight bias for the second push today but this can also be a false push before they run it down again so I will be cautious and willing to take a stop run to yesterdays highs for the short providing I am not already long. Of course while watching for the hourly close above. I would prefer the long from the 1.3444 level and with that being around 30 pips from current price there is a good possibility they push close to there during Asia and finish it during London today. If they do hold the 1.3470 level here and we get the conviction to the upside during London that will confirm direction so at that point I will look for the pullback to there or just below at the Asian lows for the long.
The GBP/USD is in the same situation the Euro was yesterday with a potential three in one push day. What makes me doubt this is the case is that it only moved 127 pips and all three pushes are well shy of the average daily range. The move was actually rather efficient showing us the probability is that this is a first push up with clear short term pushes has the highest probability and I will be looking for the next push up today. I am not totally against the short being it could be false but it will take a lot of good convincing price action at the highs to make me change the bias.
The best level for the long is around the Asia lows this morning at 1.6176 but since that is a tighter range I will want to see either price leave the Asian box close to the highs or see them play the breakout traders at the highs before the hit them at the lows. If price leaves the box closer to the lows then there is the probability they test lower around 1.6170 or even as low as 1.6146.
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Forex News Today
The significant news on the calendar today starts with German IFO Business Climate. Expectations are for a slight rise but barring a large miss there most likely wont be much reaction since Mario Draghi is having yet another speech about 30 minutes later. I expect he will repeat much of what he said yesterday but still has potential to help these pushes along even if its Friday and the week end flows may limit the move.
What About Bitcoin
Im sure members know and have heard us talk about Bitcoin and know I do own some. However I thought I should share this episode of Max Keiser that shows just how big its becoming and show those that don’t know about it they still have time to get some while its relatively cheap and there is another good crypto currency that is much lower right now. Its right at the end 😉
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