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Analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD July 24, 2013

The EUR/USD made another intraday push to the upside potentially also making the second long term push. I will admit its rather ugly since there is no decent accumulation level in between. However considering all this we should see the next push up to the 1.3250 daily level at least where it has a good chance of turning or at least giving a false push down before the break of the daily 200 EMA.

Today I will be bias for the long but I will also be expecting the pullback before it goes off. The problem is the most likely level that will hold it is in close proximity around 1.3200 so there is a decent chance it push as low as 1.3190 or even the 1.3180 level before we get the manipulation for the next push.

Now that as I have been typing this it has already tested the 1.3200 level it has a better chance of running to the 80 level or possibly the lows yesterday of 1.3162 before a turn. At this point I will be cautious with my bias since the possibility for the short term extended push still exists but I will want to see the stop run to the highs before I consider changing my bias. What would be nice to see is the push back up during Asia this morning and the fake out push down during London trapping around the 1.3190 level or below.

EUR/USD 1hr chart

The GBP/USD looks to be slowing down on the bullish pushes and even though it had the hourly close above Mondays highs it doesn’t show much conviction when the next candle pushes right back down and the daily close is below that high. I will be keeping an open mind on this pair today. If they do push this down today it will probably drag the Euro with it to some extent at least. The best way to look at this pair is with an open mind on direction and trade from yesterdays high or low since they will be the safest entry levels. I would prefer a stop run to the lows for the long but if we do get the hourly close below them the probability is its going down.

GBP/USD 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The scheduled releases start off today with Manufacturing data from France, Germany and the Euro Zone. All are expected to improve slightly but the all are close to the 50 level so if one or more of them can pop above that it will be Euro positive.

The UK has CBI Industrial Orders expected to improve but still well below zero so I don’t expect much without a large miss.

The US has New Home Sales expected to rise a bit also and considering they are pumping a new housing bubble has a chance of a surprise to the upside but I have my doubts. If you are in a trade during that release keep an eye out for the figures.

Happy Trading


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  1. jim seekings
    jim seekings July 24, 12:03

    (EUR/USD) You nailed the push down out of Asia to the 3190 level before turning north. Why do you say it will go to the 3250 before possibly turning for real or a fake push down? Is that just the next level of resistance on a 4-hour chart on the 21st of June? Great job!

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad July 24, 22:19

      Hi Jim. Thanks buddy. The reason for the thoughts it would turn there is the daily 800 EMA sitting there. The commentary says 200 and you could call that a typo or a brain fart you pick LOL. There is also a significant daily level there to back it up along with the fact it has a good chance of being over extended with the pushes they have done and most often they will push to a level to test and see if they can get some breakout traders to buy at the highs that they can sell to at the best price getting the most profit. As for the false push down they do this often to just to clear the market of weak holders before they make the next push. The last thing they want is any longs taking profit on the next push up slowing the move in turn limiting their profit. Will they push it up or down I don’t know but now that we have that first push I will have the small bias down in todays commentary.
      Thanks again for the comment

      Reply to this comment

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