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Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD August 14, 2013

The Euro made the third push as expected yesterday. Even though we didn’t get the trade in the live London training session it did come back and give me a good reason to enter the short at 1.3306 eventually running down and hitting my take profit at 1.3238 for 68 pips. I did see in Sterlings live session that other members caught the move and some even got a better entry than I did. Good job guys.

Today I will be expecting the reversal for at least a false push to the upside or the run to test the latest overall daily highs possibly breaking them. The best place to be taking a long position will be a stop run to the lows at 1.3232 but I will also be watching for that hourly close below there during London signaling they intend to run it down for extended pushes. If we do see the conviction below yesterdays lows the Asian range should be wide enough to look at the 1.3246 level for the short but it will need to be a clear set up since the chance of them running stops above 1.3264 is good before any move down. Having sad all that I expect they will push the reversal today considering the GBP/USD is having trouble with any conviction on USD strength along with the EUR/GBP holding daily support rather well.

EUR/USD 1hr chart Aug. 14, 2013

The GBP/USD looks as if they are confused on which way to push the pair. I will be treating this as no clear direction open for either way today. Having said that it did make a daily close below the previous days low so there may be some slight conviction to the downside. It is not enough to give me a bias but I will be looking for any confirmation of that conviction today during the London session. If we see that I will have the bias for the short but considering the chop we saw yesterday the levels are unclear at best so any set up will need to be clear since they are all sitting within 10 pips of each other. Otherwise the only place for a safe long position is with a stop run to yesterdays lows but if the Asian range doesn’t widen out then it would be best to see them play the break out traders to both sides of the range first.

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GBP/USD 1hr chart Aug. 14, 2013

Forex News Today

The economic calendar today starts with French and German GDP figures. Expectations are for France to come out of the technical recession coming above the big zero for the first time since last year. This will be big especially if it surprises to the upside. Of course we all know nothing has really changed in Europe and in reality the slight rise expected is within the margin of error, the big boys reaction will most likely be Euro positive anyway. Barring a big miss in the German figures in either direction it probably wont do much but with all the positive German data as of late it has a much better chance of missing to the upside the way I see it. Again Euro positive if it does.

The UK has Unemployment data released at the same time as the MPC Meeting Minutes so unless the figures miss big it will be ignored while they move on any changes from the BOE. With Carney more or less playing both sides of the fence at the late meeting this could be interesting so be careful trading around that event.

The US only has Fed Member Bullard speaking and being a voting member could move the market so if you are in a trade at the time my advice would be tighten the stop and open up the take profit just in case 😉

This wont be pretty

Yesterday I watched this Max Keiser episode and thought I should share it. What was most interesting is how they make the connection between the derivatives markets, the low interest rates from central banks and how Carney and Bernanke have more or less admitted that any increase in rates would crash what economy we do have in the world today. Of course we will never know just when it will blow but as we have seen in the past that fudging of figures works up until the time that it don’t. Enjoy if you can get past the anger at these guys who have been defrauding the whole world with the cooperation of all western governments.

Happy Trading


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