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Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD November 29, 2013

The EUR/USD still has not been able to make the reversal after the three pushes increasing the probability that the daily pin bar was somewhat of a fake out before they break the highs and run it up. We can just about bet that the Europeans businesses will be having a fit so it may be slow going to get to the next significant daily resistance point around 1.3735. There is a couple breakout levels in between that will most likely slow it down and has potential to turn it especially if Draghi comes out and does his verbal intervention as I expect. Having said that the likelihood of the break today is somewhat less due to it being Black Friday and still rather a low volume trading day. On the other hand they may also take the opportunity with the low volume to make a break so I will be cautious.

The safest levels to trade will be from the high or low of this two day chop but I will consider the long from 1.3587 with the right trapping patterns. Otherwise I will prefer to see the conviction to the upside before considering a higher entry long. Im still open for the short with a stop run to the highs but if they keep the tight Asian range I want to see them play the breakout traders at the lows first. Lastly, today is another one of those days that’s a good idea to take off but those more aggressive folks like myself can trade. Just understand the risks.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD did make the second long term push yesterday. Well more like finished the one it started on Wednesday but closed the day close to the highs and above Wednesdays highs. There is the chance they turn it here if they are running the intraday pushes and it is the end of the month so I wont be treating this as only looking for the long on the second long term push. As I was discussing in the live London session yesterday normally I would be looking for the third push in this scenario but we have to consider the other factors such as month end flows, weekly flows and a low volume day. I will have the bias for the long but if there is not a clear manipulation for the long position and there is the stop run to either yesterdays highs or the 1.6375 overall daily high I will be willing to short. If I do get my preferred long position I will hold it and not let the resistance scare me out and if I get hit break even then so be it.

Since we are seeing the break to the upside to test the 1.6375 level the Asian range lows come into play as an entry point. It would be nice to see the conviction above there but is not necessary as long as we get the nice stop run below the Asian lows which is also the support level it held through the second half of the London session yesterday. What I will want to take any shorts is to see price leave the Asian box close to the lows, play the breakout traders with no manipulation and then see the stop run to the highs at 1.6375.

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GU 1hr chart

 Forex News today

The calendar looks pretty busy today but there are no high impact releases to note. The only one that may cause a stir with a large miss is EU Unemployment. If it does surprise my thoughts are the best chance is for something negative.

Have a great weekend


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