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Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD on April 5, 2013

Well we have finally got our answer on direction from Super Mario yesterday. In short the Euro will be defended at all costs and there “IS NO PLAN B”. Well that isn’t quite what I was expecting since we all know there have been many banks around the world thinking of plan B,C and D for quite some time. No matter though Mario just said in effect that the charade will continue until its either fixed or the whole thing blows up in someone’s face. Think European sheeple since the politicians and elite will all have their wealth secure somewhere else I imagine.

What really made me laugh was seeing the response Mario gave to what us Zero Hedge readers have been wondering for awhile now. This is where the Eur/Usd went nuts. Check it out in the link below. I have to admit the questions were a little ambiguous but I think Scott Solano was just being nice instead of saying what we all are really thinking. That its not a matter of if but when the “situation of Greece or Spain deteriorates further” as it has before and will again mainly because the guy on the street is getting the shaft while they save the banks and the Euro. I would add this question to the 3 follow up ones from the article.

Mario Draghi Responds To Zero Hedge: “There Is No Plan B”

How can an economy recover when the population that creates it is getting poorer by the second?

When an economy grows its due to the people getting richer and spending that wealth creating the circulation of money that creates growth. The fact is Reagans trickle down theory has proven to be a sham mainly because as the rich got richer they did things like hide their money to keep it from trickling down. Therefore what should be getting to the guy on the street (in this theory) that works for the rich at the top, never gets to him. Why? Because they are more concerned about them self and their shareholders than they are the real backbone of the company. The worker.

Now don’t get me wrong. I don’t think the rich should be unfairly taxed or their wealth taken but these guys should be allowed to go down in flames when they make bad decisions along with their personal wealth attached to the failing of the company. Why should Corzine be able to keep all his money while all his clients take the hit?  I don’t even care if they pardon him for being a stupid, greedy idiot. It would be plenty enough to see him living on the street all over the news. One would think that would be a good deterrent to the elites of the world to be a bit more wiser as they plunder. 

Ok Im done with the rant. On to the charts.

We have a clean first push that has the possibility of being a 2 in one for a run of over 200 pips. At this point I am not thinking they will do a deeper pullback with NFP coming up today. The reason is the unemployment claims data yesterday was a big miss leaving the possibility of the Unemployment rate release today popping up again. If that does happen we will probably see the Eur/Usd test the highs around 1.3050. The best level to be looking for the long today is pretty far away at 1.2887 so unless we get the push down to test it starting during Asia or the beginning of London then the Asian lows formed this morning will be where I look for the set up. The possibility for the short is low today so in order to change my bias I will need to see a clear 1 hour stop run to yesterdays highs along with the manipulation patterns we look for on the 15 minute chart.

EUR/USd 1hr chart April 5, 2013

The GBP/USD also has the same 200+ pip push to the upside as the USD weakness was the rule of the day yesterday. At the moment its finding support at the 4 hour 200 EMA that was fairly well respected in the past so the Asian lows are in play as long as we don’t see a nice push below. Otherwise the next level to take a long from is the 1.5176.

GBP/USD 1hr chart April 5, 2013

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Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with Housing price data from the UK. I have my doubts these will have much effect without a large miss. Housing data isn’t really improving much anywhere so barring a big miss upwards these will be a overlooked.

Later from the Euro Zone is quarterly GDP, Retail Sales and German Factory orders. I have my doubts there will be any surprises here but the one that has most potential is the German Factory orders. I am thinking it will just be a chance for manipulation before the US NFP later and that would happen on a disappointment.

The US has the NFP, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate. I doubt the Trade Balance will have much effect unless it is a miss that adds to the direction of a bad NFP figure. Otherwise if the NFP is a good figure make sure you wait to see the Unemployment Rate too. If NFP is moderately good and the Rate rises it will be the one that pushes price since the Fed has linked Unemployment to their QE efforts.

Happy Trading


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