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April 15th 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD did make a first long term push down yesterday without much of an attempt to fill the gap open showing the conviction in the down move off the comments from the ECB over the weekend. It seems the lip service has at least slowed the rise of the Euro for now when in all reality, fundamental wise it shouldn’t be rising anyway. The Fed hasn’t shown any sign they will slow the taper and there hasn’t been anything good come from Europe other than UK good news. As I mentioned in the live training last week the good UK data does bode well or Europe or at least could as they are the UK largest trading partner. However one would think if the picture is all that great we would be seeing good data from Europe too. Just another one of those things the make you go Hmmmm.

Since we have a first push I will be bias for the short on this pair today. Having said that it is odd that we have it over two days and the weekend with the gap yet open so they may try to close that today. As usual I will be open for the long with a stop run to the lows preferably seeing the Asian session test down first then run up to hit 1.3831 or a little higher to get more weak holders short before they run stops. Otherwise if they keep the tight range and hit breakout traders to the lows first I will be looking to short at the area between 1.3831 and 1.3838 with a clear set up. If they do run it higher than that then they will likely close the gap or at least test the gap traders and run it above yesterdays highs.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD didn’t make a push yesterday going into somewhat of a chop showing some conviction to the downside. At this point it can be looked at a couple ways in that the conviction is a fake out or a sign of further downside movement. I would be much happier and convinced of the conviction if the daily close was below Fridays lows so keeping an open mind on this pair is the safest way to trade it today. If that is true conviction then they will most likely run it down a bit during the Asian session and test 1.6743 during London to run stops and suck in the breakout traders before a run down. I will only be open for a long from a stop run to the 1.6700 level where the hourly 200 sits unless they show some conviction above yesterdays highs, at that time Fridays lows or even the Asian lows become decent levels they could turn it at.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar during the London session starts off with CPI and PPI data from the UK. Not much has changed regarding this data other than it has been below the 2% threshold lately. As long as its close to expectations there shouldn’t be much more than manipulation around it but if for some reason it drops close to zero anything goes really. The big boys may see that as a sign they have more room for asset purchases but that coupled with all the good data coming from the UK there really is no reason and on the flip side if they want to see more inflation then raising rates is the sure way to get it which means putting an end to asset purchases. It looks as though the BOE has backed its self into the opposite corner of the Fed with no where to go either.

There is also German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Current Conditions. With Sentiment expected to drop slightly and Conditions expected to rise these will off set each other if they miss slightly. However if one or both miss big in the same direction (most likely negative) then it should be Euro negative.

Later the US has CPI data also and should only have much effect if it drops below zero also giving the Fed reason to ponder deflation further backing them into their corner between a rock and a hard place. However considering all the massaging of data these days it will most likely be as expected at .01% or a slight rise. As long as that’s the case it wont do much as they wait for Janet Yellen to make her speech later in the day looking for any sign of tapering the taper or something else to show what the Fed is thinking of next. At the same time the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is released but this will need a large miss to do much before Yellen also.

Asian session traders tomorrow have a bit of data to keep an eye on. Any NZD cross traders will need to either be in a trade well before their CPI data and Aussie traders have a couple bits of Chinese data with GDP figures and Industrial Production.

Happy Trading


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