April 22, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD this morning shows that again we don’t have a clear direction. I could argue the case for two intraday pushes to the upside but with the second push of 86 pips getting fully retraced in the same day makes me think they have been clearing out weak shorts. There was also a nice 1hour stop run during the US session that they eventually took stops above the following hour only to show a nice set of hourly reversal legs eventually finishing the day within a few pips of the open for the day.
As this pint I will be keeping my options open with no bias on direction. The levels that have the highest probability to see the manipulation is the price the market gapped to this morning at 1.3076 and Thursdays highs of 1.3095. The level is still valid as a daily level because there was not a daily close above it. Having said that the psych 1.3100 also has the potential for a stop run but if they do want to start a real push down today the chances are they cleaned out the stops on Friday. The levels that have potential for a long position are Fridays low of 1.3044 and just below at 1.3029 where the 4 hour 200 EMA sits. This has the higher probability than the upper level due to the fact they have held it above so I will be rather cautions around the 1.3044 level.
The GBP/USD didn’t show the same gap the Euro did this morning telling me the gap was more Euro related than USD related. The price action on the GBP/USD Friday does show more bearish tendency but holding in the 160+ pip range don’t make it clear that they intend to push it down either. We do have the hourly close below last weeks lows during the Asian session this morning but its hard to call that any conviction with the large hourly wick to the downside so I am keeping my options open on this pair also.
The level I see having the most potential for a short is the 4 hour 20 EMA at 1.5262 but being almost 50 pips away from price right now it will depend on how price holds during Asia for it to have a higher probability of making it there. If it can hold below Fridays lows during Asia the 1.5242 has a good chance to see manipulation for the short also. The only way I will be considering a long position is a stop run to the lows during Asia or something very clear that they wont let it go below the psych level of 1.5200.
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Forex News Today
The European calendar is void of any major news releases today and the only release of note from the US is New Home Sales expected to rise by about 30K. This release is becoming a little more significant since if the US housing ever does make a real recovery (of which I doubt) then it will have a significant chance of a real economic recovery. having said that I am more and more suspicious of any data from the US these days but it is what the market reacts to so we cant just ignore it.
Today I leave you with an interesting Max Kieser report video on the gold smash down. What I found most intriguing was the interview with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts who was there at the beginning of Reaganomics talking about how he is convinced that the Fed and their cronies were behind the gold smack down trying to protect their QEternity policies. Very interesting to say the least. You could skip to the last 15 minutes for the interview but the first part is pretty good too. Enjoy
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