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April 22, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

Today we should see the markets wake up again with the big boys going back to work after a long weekend off. At this point it will be best to keep an open mind on direction since yesterday and Friday we cant really trust that they had anything to do with the moves. We do have some geopolitical issues brewing with things escalating over Russia and Ukraine along with China and Japan having some issues as China seized a Japanese cargo ship over the weekend. Of course if either of these heat up more it will be good for the USD so it would be a good idea to keep an eye on both of these situations for the near future. Otherwise the probability of the EUR/USD holding in the current 78 pip range seems good. What would change that is a good conviction close below the lows today and I will be bias for the short.

The best level if they do show us conviction will be 1.3795 but with that being so close in proximity to current price they could easily push it to 1.3803 as they get orders stacked. Right now they seem to be holding below the four hour 200 EMA but we will have to see what London does with that later on today. As usual with no clear bias I will be open for the long from a stop run to the low but would prefer to see them push it up during Asia, hit the breakout traders and then do the stop run to yesterdays lows.

EU 1hr chart

There is not much to say about the GBP/USD today. Holding a 40+ pip range and the rejection at the daily level of 1.6816 says a little but as with the EU without the participation of the big boys we cant really have much faith in direction. The best choice again is to be open for the short at yesterdays highs or the long at Fridays lows. I do think the short may have more probability but that does assume the last two days of price action means something. Of which I have my doubts.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The calendar don’t have anything during the London session today. On top of that the US session is slow with only Existing Home Sales. Expectations are for a slight drop but since the housing data hasn’t been doing much lately it will need a big miss to cause anything of which will most likely be manipulation.

The Asian session tomorrow has some big releases to look out for. Early on is the Aussie has their CPI data. If it does miss big to the upside the AUD should strengthen as potential for a increase in interest rates goes up. With expectations at .8% it will need to miss close to 2% to get the sustained move. Otherwise a big drop and we should see the opposite move. Later is the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI which is the more accurate PMI data since its not done by the government. Expected to rise a bit it wont take much of a disappointment to have an impact on the AUD. With it being well below 50 already more slowing of Chinese growth will impact Australia so be careful around that release if your in an AUD trade.

Happy Trading


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