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April 30, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

It would sure seem that we have a decent push up on the EUR/USD today and although I would like to have more of a bias to the upside now I am remaining cautious today. The long bias I was developing during the Asian session as I wrote yesterdays commentary was correct but the test I wanted to see didn’t happen so I stayed flat.

This week also has the Fed Meeting and ECB press conference so the probability of seeing decent movement is low. Therefore today I will have a small bias for the long but will be keeping my options open. The potential topping formation around the 1.3100 level is pretty clear so taking the short from some clear manipulation in between 1.3100 and 1.3115 will be a possible but I will want a very good entry since seeing the stop run to the highs would be a higher probability trade. The best levels to be looking for a long position will be the lows during the London US overlap yesterday at 1.3077 or just below at 1.3067.

EUR/USD 1hr chart 4-30-2013

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The GBP/USD did make the small push up yesterday only to be rejected close to the daily level at 1.5549 and came down to close near its opening price. I cant say I like the rejection but all things considered the clearest way to look at this is a first push to the upside and I will have a small bias for the continuation today. What makes it more clear is the almost 300 pip move to the upside followed by the stop run to the lows we had Friday last week at the beginning of this push. As long as the Asian range stays tight I will be looking for the test of 1.5469 for the manipulation but I can say I would be happier to see a test during the Asian session with a pullback before London has a go at it with some clear manipulation. Otherwise I will be open for a short from the highs at 1.5545 but that does seem unlikely considering proximity to price right now. As with the Euro there is a good chance these pairs are in wait and see mode until the Fed and ECB do their grand manipulation tomorrow and Thursday. Not to mention we have Nonfarm Friday.

GBP/USD 1hr chart 4-30-2013

Forex News Today

The calendar looks to be rather busy today but there are really only a few potential movers. The German GFK Consumer Climate and Retail Sales have potential but are released early in the European session and have more potential to be used as manipulation. Later are their Unemployment Change and Rate figures and have more potential with a large miss. The bar is set low expecting to add 2k to the unemployed but a surprise jump in the rate will cause more of a move the way I see it, especially since the last release was a large disappointment losing 13k jobs. The Euro Zone Unemployment rate is expected to rise a notch and if there is a negative miss for Germany this has a good chance to spike even higher.

The US has Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence both expecting a rise. Us usual a surprise down will be USD negative and the opposite for a miss to the upside. If consumers and purchasing managers are more confident it would not bode well for more potential QE and we will get the answer on that issue tomorrow.

Happy Trading


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