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April 8th 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

The push up we had yesterday on the EUR/USD proved that my concern about the bottoming formation was valid. It sure seems as though when the equities show risk off it has more of a USD weakness effect rather than the usual risk aversion where we see the USD strengthen against risk currencies like the Euro or AUD. The SUD/USD did have a small drop yesterday but nothing like we have seen before when risk goes out the window.  Yes it most likely has to do with the thinking that when stocks drop the Fed will print but that shows the dynamics have changed due to the world wide print fest and mainly the Fed as the big boys do their best to front run the Fed like they have been doing for the last few years.

Now that we have the first push to the upside fulfilling all requirements I will have a bias for the next push today while still open for this just being a fake out to push out any weak shorts in the market. At this point the best level for the long will be at 1.3721 considering where current price sits. If they do show some conviction above yesterdays highs during the London session then I will consider the pullback to 1.3730 or just a little higher at the lows during the end of the US session yesterday. In order to take the short today I would prefer to see them hold these highs during Asia and then do an hourly stop run hitting the hourly 200 EMA traders and using them to their advantage, preferably with the trapping we look for and hourly close below yesterdays highs.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD also made a first push up clearing Fridays highs and closing on the day just above them. As I mentioned in yesterdays commentary seeing the three pushes take five days doesn’t happen all that often but as of yesterday it had the higher probability than what we got with the first push upward. Today I will have the bias for the continuation and as long as the USD weakness continues we will get it on both pairs. I will still be open for the short as I am on the EU but again there will need to be clear signs that this is potentially a fake out.

The best level for the long is at the hourly 200 at 1.6600 with all the confluence there but with the four hour sitting just below they could test that also with it being at significant previous support. With them holding the tighter daily ranges now I will be a little less concerned that the Asian range is less than 30 pips but would prefer to see them widen it beyond 20. If it does show the hourly conviction to the upside early in the London session I will consider a higher level for the long but will depend on how far the break goes. At that point Fridays highs or even yesterdays highs come into play depending on the move. As usual any consideration for the short will be on the big boys refusing to let price pass yesterdays highs.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures today. Of which is the only significant data during the London session. Expectations are for a small drop in headline manufacturing and a small rise in Industrial numbers. As long as these come out close to what is expected they should offset each other. Otherwise the higher impact release is Mfg. so a big miss there will at least give them a reason to manipulate. Later the UK also has the NIESR GDP Estimate but this will need a big miss to make many waves.

Later in the US there are a few Fed speeches that could throw a wrench in price movement but with how members of the Fed have been acting as of late I expect them to tow the line and keep up the taper talk.

Tomorrows Asian session traders should keep an eye on the BOJ monthly report but I have my doubts there will be anything significant coming that wont be talked about in the press conference this morning.

Happy Trading


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