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August 12, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis

As I suspected the EUR/USD didn’t make much of a move yesterday with no news to make a push. However it did weaken slightly going back into the range it has held this month. I did mention in yesterdays commentary that they would need some conviction to break to new monthly highs and to be honest I just don’t think its there. That’s not enough to give me a bias for today but since they didn’t break up yesterday the probability has gone down. At this point I will keep an open mind for direction today and look to the levels and typical habits the big boys use before they make a push.

The best level to short from today is at 1.3395 where it has the confluence of the 200 EMA and psych 1.3400 just above. The problem with that level is its proximity to current price so either leaving the Asian box at the lows or showing conviction to the downside during the London session would be preferable. Otherwise they could push up to 1.3407 just below yesterdays highs before a turn. The best long is at yesterdays lows but the same problem exists with proximity so I will need to see them leave Asia closer to the 1.3400 level and test down with a stop run to the lows while watching for conviction to the downside to minimize any potential hit.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD also didn’t go anywhere but did rise slightly since the Euro weakness bled through to the EUR/GBP a little more than any USD strength coming in. With the range only being 23 pips yesterday it sure doesn’t show that they are looking for a reversal and will need a good reason before they do. Therefor I will keep an open mind on this pair today. The safest entries will be from yesterdays highs of 1.6794 or overall lows at 1.6766 but with all the support that kicked in a little higher than the lows yesterday they could stop it there if they do want to reverse here. I do see that as the lower probability since they couldn’t make a push for the ADR showing there was buying going on but not enough to make a move. Telling me the buying was more of the selling in the EUR/GBP holding the GU up.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY also held well within its ADR for only a 41 pip move, including the gap up it had to start the day. With nothing clear on direction other than the potential first push up I will have a slight bias for the next move up again but will be diminished due to the extent of that 1st push along with no follow through yesterday. The best level to take the long is at yesterdays lows of 136.58 while the best short will be yesterdays highs at the gap high of 137.01.

I am tempted this morning to take the short with the GJ agreeing but since the legs are rather ugly and the UJ has shown conviction to the upside I will be holding off for more information before taking an entry this early.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only data on the calendar today that may give them some reason to push is the German and Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment figures that are released about the time the London Live training session ends today. Therefore I hope to be in a trade well before the news and at least at a lower risk stop for the release. Otherwise I will wait until after the release and see if they use it to manipulate. The German data is expecting a big drop so it has a better chance of missing. However in all reality, since there has been some negative German releases lately its a toss up even though a miss to the upside seems more probable.

There isn’t much from the US but in early Asia tomorrow there is the BOJ Meeting Minutes along with some Chinese data that could get the Yen and Aussie pairs stirred up.

Happy Trading


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