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August 15, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD has gone into the third push chop rather than making the reversal yesterday so I will be open for direction today. This 40 pip range we have does make it some what easier finding the levels but since it is working its way into a corner there is a good chance they will mess around and give some false runs when this triangle breaks. The safest place to be looking for an entry on this pair today will be the overall lows at 1.3232 for a long, while keeping in mind they may stop it at yesterdays lows of 1.3240. The best place for the short is yesterdays highs around 1.3280.

I also want to mention the EUR/GBP since we are seeing the USD not have much impact on what the Pound and Euro are doing these days. We have two long term pushes to the downside so we are likely going to see one of two things if the USD remains a nonfactor. The EUR/USD will drop as the GBP/USD rises slowly or chop. Or the GU will rise again while the EU stays muddled in this range or makes a small breakout. We will have to just wait and see. I do see the high probability of seeing the third push on the EG today.

EUR/USD 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has a clear first push to the upside today running for well over 90 pips so I will be having a small bias for the continuation. I do have a sneaking suspicion they may be trying to push out weak holders before a move down but that is nothing to trade from. I will still be open for a short but will need something clear preferably in the form of a 1 hour stop run to the highs at 1.5545 with the trapping patterns during that hour. Otherwise I will be looking for the Asian range to widen and see them play the break out traders, test Tuesdays high and run off upward. Or if the Asian range remains tight I will prefer seeing them play the breakout traders at both ends and take the long around 1.5500.

1hr GBP/USD chart

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Forex News Today

The scheduled releases are light during the London session with only Retail Sales data from the UK. Expectations are for a slight rise for most and I don’t see any reason to doubt that at this time. Any surprise will need to be big to create much movement which I doubt.

The US has a busy day data wise. Starting off early with Fed Member Bullard speaking and then jumping into the Thursday Unemployment Claims along with CPI data and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index all released at the same time. I have doubts CPI will be much to look at while a big miss in Unemployment Claims will be a mover. If it misses up tapering is off and equities and the Euro should rise. Miss down and the opposite as taper thoughts hit the market. An hour and a half later is the Philly Fed Manufacturing index. This is expected to drop significantly so I think setting the bar that low it will have a better chance of missing to the upside than down but the volatility in these figures has been high lately so it could do anything and has a big impact when it does miss big.

I know some of you miss Rick

I found this Rick Santelli rant I had to share with you today. I have to admit the argument with Steve Leisman makes it hard to hear because they are talking over each other pretty much the whole time but I think Steve needs a cuff to the back of the head to wake him up if he really thinks that trying to back the governments fake figures for the masses is going to make a difference. We all know they are mostly BS and even Bernanke has admitted the unemployment is a joke. I almost smacked my screen to try and reach that bonehead when he was saying that the governments numbers are the best we got. Total BS

What really gets me in the craw is that bonehead easily overlooks the fact that a majority of the inflation created by the Fed has been exported around the world and if he thinks that wont eventually come home to roost he has a serious mental deficiency. Along with the fact that we all know inflation in the US is much higher than 2% especially if you count the zero interest they have on savings along with wages going lower, full time jobs being replaced with part timers. The list goes on. Enjoy the video and take a peek at the chart showing just a few of the inflated prices of family needs. Sure Steve there is no inflation here.

Inflation data

Happy Trading


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