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August 5, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD didn’t show any real conviction to make a reversal or second push yesterday so I will be more open on direction today. With there being more news on tap today there is a better chance for a push but the events scheduled aren’t high impact so we will have to see a sizable miss in order for them to make a push today.

The best level for a short is yesterday’s highs at 1.3430 but with the next daily level close at 1.3443 the set up will need to be good since they could easily run stops above. The best level for the long today is around 1.3410 and while the 1.3413 is valid I expect they will run stops before they push up and dip lower. The issue is that most members know when they hold a tight range something is up. They are either building a position for the break or have no clue which way they want to push and are waiting for something to give them reason for a direction. I suspect the latter.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD did make a decent reversal  but also held a tighter range than the current average daily range  telling us something is not all as they would like to show clear conviction on direction. If they wanted to try to push weak shorts out they would at least run stops above 1.6891 or show some conviction above if they wanted to push higher. At this point I see the higher probability for the next push down but it’s not enough to give me a bias for the day.

If they do run it up to 1.6891 or close during Asia I will be open for the short from there with a clear set up. Otherwise I would expect this level at 1.6866 to hold as the Asian highs and push down to consider it for the short during the London session today. Otherwise I will be open for the long at 1.6839 but the safest place for a long is down at 1.6815.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY did show some conviction to the downside so I will have a slight bias for the short on this pair today. I’m not all that thrilled it’s was only a 48 pip move but the conviction does add some probability. I am considering the short here during Asia if all pairs set up but have another candle or two to wait on. Otherwise the best level to short is at 137.89 unless the current 137.69 holds and they push down from here without giving me an entry during the Asian session. I will be open for the long from yesterday’s low just in case this is a fake out but they will need to show something rather clear for the entry.


Forex News Today

The calendar is more busy today with Services PMI from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the EZ as a whole. Spain and Italy are expected to slightly improve while all others remain flat. The best chance for a decent move is for the German or EZ figures to miss big but if they don’t then we most likely won’t see much from the EU. The UK Services PMI has a better chance of making a move on a miss. Expected to improve slightly I expect a disappointment to have a larger impact but a large miss to the upside will cause some GBP strength. Most likely against the Euro but the GU will benefit some as well.

The US has Factory Orders and ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. With the orders data expected to get above zero it would take a large miss in either direction to make them push the USD around. I just don’t see them thinking the Fed with have a chance of heart unless these miss really big. Otherwise the move today will be risk related or due to a large miss on the UK data.

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