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Daily Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 16, 2013

In todays commentary I am going to skip the rant, get straight to the charts and get back to what is stopping the economic recovery on another day. I also want to express our condolences to the victims in the Boston bombings. The facts are far from clear at this point so we will be keeping an open mind until they do get to the bottom of it. My hopes are it don’t just give the government more excuses to ramp up the police state. Im not holding my breath though. On to the charts

The EUR/USD has made at least 1 long term push down but the price action is not great and seems that the extension lower was on the Boston news rather than part of a smart money plan so I will be treating it with caution today. The only level I see as a good short is the Asian highs today at 1.3054. Its a proven resistance level at this point so a stop run to that level with a clear entry will get me short. There is also potential for a long position around yesterdays lows where price found support at the hourly 200 EMA but my bias will be slightly for the short.

EUR/USD 1hr chart 4-16-2013

The GBP/USD looks clearer for the short today. The same applies because of the news so I will be cautious. Having said that its holding well below the hourly 200 EMA so that will be the level I look to see a stop run or clear manipulation patterns for the short. The 1.5300 psych level is just above there so we will have a lot of confluence but still need to see the manipulation for the entry.

GBP/USD 1hr chart 4-16-2013

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Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start off with CPI and PPI data from the UK. Expectations are for CPI flat and PII dropping. I have my doubts these will be market movers without a large deviation and inflation data from the UK has largely been ignored lately. Having said that a significant drop in CPI may open up the prospects of more asset purchases and cause GBP weakness.

The Euro Zone has CPI data also and also expected with no change so will be a non event barring a large miss. They also have German ZEW Economic Sentiment expecting a significant drop. This has more potential with a large miss either way so tis is up in the air considering the bar set so low. EZ ZEW is also due with a modest drop expected but the German figures will be what the market reacts to more with a miss.

The US session has potential for some wild swings today. Not because of the CPI data but the three Fed members speeches along with one from super Mario during the beginning of the US session so be careful around that time of day. Not to mention the US Treasury secretary.

Happy Trading


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