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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD November 4, 2013

The EUR/USD never made a pullback on Friday last week. Usually we do see some sort of profit taking move after they make such a large move over the course of a week. However since the month just ended the day before the months end flows always trump the weekly and we got another drop s a little reminder to keep track of both the weekly and monthly flows. There was a nice trapping pattern in the middle of the Asian range but the pullback for entry never happened. In order for me to take that aggressive of an entry it would have had to happen at the Thursday lows and give e a reason to take it without a pullback with a no demand or low volume test candle before it shifted off. No joy there.

Today were looking at the potential for the reversal having the higher probability with price coming into the significant daily and monthly support around 1.3484 and goes as low as 1.3460 if it does break below there it has a ways to go before finding anything but break out support. The best place for the long on the pullback is a stop run to Fridays lows around 1.3480. I will still be open for the short but would prefer to see it from the range between Fridays high and Thursdays low. The four hour 200 ema is hanging around there for some good confluence also. I will only consider the short from the lower levels at 1.3538-23 if the trapping patterns are very clear since the probability is much lower in the middle of the range.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the break to the downside also on the USD strength blowing past and closing below the 1.5944 level but being held up by the overall daily lows at 1.5912 to 1.5890 range. There is a good chance for the reversal on this pair today also but the same thing goes here as with the Euro in that if they do break it down this week there is a lot of room to the downside before it finds the next daily breakout level. The higher probability is for the long today but I will be open for the short with the right set up.

The best place for the long is again the stop run to the lows while watching for any conviction to the downside during the London session. As with the Euro taking the short in the middle of the range between 1.6000 and the lows is more risky but I will consider it with the right set up. Now that we have this pop to the down side as I write this up there seems to be more potential for the break down but we will have to wait and see since the GU hasn’t broke like the Euro as of yet. if it does during Asia then the Asian highs come into play along with the middle of the Asian range if it widens out enough.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The economic calendar is slow today with only Manufacturing PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the Euro Zone. I don’t expect too much movement from these unless there are a few that pop below the 50 level. More notably Germany since France is already there. Otherwise there is UK Construction PMI which will probably be pretty close or miss to the upside considering the government program blowing the bubble intended.

The US has Factory Orders but being a medium impact event it will take a large miss to spur any thoughts of expending QEternity which has kind of been squashed a bit by a Fed Fisher speech in Australia over the weekend.

Happy Trading


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