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Daily Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 6, 2013

The first intraday push we had yesterday on the EUR/USD proved to be a major fake out thanks to Super Mario doing a Euro dump. There was a decent trade I know some members took during the London session for a good 40 -50 pip trade depending on the entry and sure enough it started to turn a couple hours before Mario took the stage and dumped it over 100 pips from the highs. This is why on big news days I always say the safer trade is to just take the twice the risk profits rather than hold for the long run which is what I do most often. I did not take the long since the level was not what I wanted and watched the GBP/USD which also missed my entry by just a few pips.

Now considering price action alone we have a first push down after a false push up. Having said that since we have US Non Farm Payroll today we may not get much movement before that comes out. The way I see the best potential is for the pullback before the release. Having said that with a first push down the bias is for the continuation which could happen at a few pretty close levels. The one I see that has the most potential is the daily low at 1.3155 but just above at 1.3165 is where there is proven resistance that has been clearly tested. If it reaches above that level with no manipulation I will most likely just let it go and wait until next week. Otherwise if we manage to get the 1 hour stop run to the lows I will consider the long trading the pullback and get out before the NFP release

EU 1 hour chart

The GBP/USD price action looks eerily similar to what they did on Tuesday. The safest way to treat this today is no clear direction and look for the clear manipulation at the significant levels. The problem with that is they are either the 1.5583 for a long or 1.5646 for the short. There is also the 1.5600 level that we have seen some conviction above during Asia but I will be waiting to see if it holds during the London session. If the manipulation is clear there I will consider a long but will want a good entry since the 1.5583 level is just below.

GBP/USD 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

Of course its NFP day and even though the calendar looks busy there are only a few releases other than NFP that will be worth them using to manipulate on larger misses. If they come out close to expected then there most likely wont be much movement. The ones to watch are Manufacturing and Industrial Production from the UK ad later the German Industrial production.

Other than that when NFP is released with expectations of 180K as long as its close then the Unemployment Rate will be whats looked at if there is a miss. Even if it does drop watch out for the manipulation because the big boys know what a farce the figures are so the may still think Bernanke will taper in coming weeks. If it pops up then chances are they will go with no taper thoughts and the USD will weaken.

Have a great weekend


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