Daily Analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY September 8, 2014
The EUR/USD did get a small pullback Friday pushing up 67 pips which was enough to blow the ADR for the day. It don’t look like a decent move in the context of last weeks drop but still a decent push considering what the ADR is at these days. At this point it does qualify for a first push to the upside so I will have a small bias for the next push up for a reversal. Not that I really think they will make a push for a strong Euro but I expect any EU strength from a potential run on the EUR/GBP while they hold the GBP/USD in place. Otherwise the fundamental picture for the EU points downward but that don’t mean they cant or wont push it up to flush out some weak holders before any move down.
The best level for the long is 1.2943 but only if they try to move up during Asia and then test it during the London session, however they could also run it to 1.2924 before pushing up. If they do run it that low I will want a good set up and entry while I watch for the conviction for a push down. Otherwise I will be open for the short from 1.2980 with enough of them showing they have no desire to make the next push.
The GBP/USD has already started the week badly with a 150 pip gap this morning, blown the ADR from the lows already and seems as though any buying pressure is being eaten up pretty quickly. I have to say this does seem to be an over reaction to the news of the Scottish polls showing the independence vote getting over the 50% hump now showing 51% of Scots in the separatists camp. In all reality I am sure that is well within the margin of error on such types of polls, however it does say something with only 10 days left until the vote, if the separation movement is really gaining traction. If it continues then I would have to agree there is reason for the GBP to be on the slippery slope. Having said that I am always somewhat skeptical of such moves and will be very cautious trading this pair today.
The best levels I see for a short are at the 1.6260 daily level from February or even the 1.6218 level if it can hold below during Asia this morning. It only needs a daily close below there and its off to test new yearly lows down at 1.6139 or below. With the ADR blown its going to take a lot of typical tricks they use to get me long today and I will only be considering it from the gap low where the ADR low is as well.
The price action on the EUR/JPY last Friday does show they are pushing it more on the Yen for the time being so I will be looking closer for an entry this morning as long as the USD/JPY agrees. With the GBP/JPY pretty much out of the picture I wont need all three. There is just about nothing all that clear on direction besides a little conviction to the downside Friday, the best level for a short this morning will be if they reach 138.32 and show clean trapping on both pairs. Otherwise a test of 136.58 may be in order. While the 135.98 level is valid for a long I doubt they will run there for an entry during Asia but I will be open for the long there during the London session later today as long as I am not holding a short going into it.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a little busy for a Monday starting with German Trade Balance data. I wouldn’t expect much from this baring a big miss but its possible. Expectations are for a rise.
The UK has the Halifax House Price Index later. Expected to drop a little this shouldn’t do much as long as its close to expectations. Later in the NY session they also have the BRC Retail sales monitor that could move on lower volume on a large miss but I expect they will be paying more attention to any gains the separatists Scotland are getting.
The US has Treasury Secretary Lew speaking but his speeches rarely make waves since we all know hes just a puppet of the Fed. He will only surprise if they let him and the Fed has been rather tight lipped since Janet took over.
The Asian session tomorrow has The BOJ Monetary Polict Meeting minutes which could be interesting. The Aussie has home loans and NAB Business Confidence that could get the AUD moving early.
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