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Daily Analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD July 31,2013

The EUR/USD has stayed in a third push chop scenario backing up my reasoning for not considering the move Monday as a push with any conviction so today I will be even more cautious with this pair. The fact is with the FOMC Meeting, Rate Statement and Press Release there isn’t likely to be much movement on this pair until then today. Although I should say that if US GDP misses big then we could be in for an earlier show.

The best place to be looking for a potential entry will only be from the high of the range for a short or the lows for a long position. Any other trapping patterns for a trade in either direction at the less significant levels will be aggressive and warrant a very good entry and caution until the stop can be moved to break even.

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EUR/USD 1hr chart July 31

As with the Euro the GBP/USD warrants some caution today. It did give the expected second push yesterday but with a significant daily level just above the 1.5200 level and the possible 3 intraday pushes down for almost 200 pips I wont be treating this as a clear second push trade. I will hold my bias for the short, however where they will potentially move it off from is questionable. It is quite possible that the 1.5251 level hold but I would expect and be happier to see some of the inefficient move down get retraced first which means they could stop it at 5262, 5277 or go all the way to 5294 and test the psych 1.5300 first. Of which is why I will be open for a long but there will have to be enough to override my bias short with something to the effect of a 1 hour stop run with trapping patterns inside and a really good entry. If we get the hourly close below yesterdays lows during the London session then the lower levels for a short do have higher probability as it will show they don’t have much desire to close the inefficient move.

GBP/USD 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is pretty busy today starting off with German Unemployment and Euro Zone CPI but with more significant news later I expect these to be used to manipulate even if they miss rather than cause any real conviction.

The US session is when things start to get fun with ADP Nonfarm expected to be 8K lower than the last print of 188K. A big miss to the downside will be taper off mode and USD negative and the opposite for a miss to the upside. Depending on the size of the miss it may not do anything due to US GDP figures 15 minutes later. Expectations for that are a drop setting the bar rather low so an upside surprise will have more effect the way I see it. Again a lower print = taper off USD negative and higher, taper on and USD positive. If none of these miss big the chance they will just wait for the Fed Interest rate decision and statement later is high. Again the big news will be to taper or not to taper and how ever they interpret Bernanke will be the way they make the push. Be careful if you are in a trade at the time and if you can get twice your risk its safest to just take the profit rather than ride through the probable whipsaw caused by Bernanke.

How about that Gold

I have been seeing very interesting things surrounding the gold market these days and thought I should share some of them. I am thinking these guys are right and there are probably some serious troubles at the bullion banks. However how long it takes to see the markets take this seriously is a different story and of course the big boys will be doing their best to hide it as long as possible. With central bank help certainly. Enjoy some Max Keiser  with Andrew Maguire and another interview with Alasdair Macleod

Happy Trading


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