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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 17, 2014

The movement on the EUR/USD yesterday shows that they really have no idea what direction they will be going next. It does show some conviction to the upside during the London session fulfilling the criteria for a first push over two days but not enough to continue that move during the NY session making it a clearer first push over a single day. After testing the days lows during NY they try to push it up to no avail and close the day within a couple pips of where it opened. No Change. Having said that the small level of conviction we have and first push does skew the probability slightly to the upside today and with the Asian session already at a 27 pip range the Asian highs and lows have better probability for entries.

The way it is sitting right now the best level for the long is at 1.3813 but if it runs up and blows through yesterdays highs during the London session I will look at a backside entry at Tuesdays highs around 1.3831. I will be open for a short at yesterdays highs with a clear set up but prefer to be long looking to see that break during the London session.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD ran off straight out of the Asian box never looking back like they knew the Unemployment data was going to be better than expected. Go figure.

At this point we have a clean long term first push up while the Asian session this morning has started the second. Here I will have the bias for the long also with the 1.6808 level being the first place I will be looking to take the long from during the London session today. Having said that there is also the Asian lows they may push to at 1.6793 or even lower at 1.6784 although I have my doubts unless they want to push all the weak Asian holders out first. The psych level of 1.6800 has good probability as well but with a daily high and other significant level above if they do push it past them before the move up they will likely be wanting to get stops below and hit the Asian lows. The only way I will consider a short against this push is if we see it move below yesterdays highs during the Asian session adding probability to a potential fake out.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is really slow today with only German PPI data during the London session. Its not a high impact event but if it does miss and drop below zero it could be bad for the Euro. otherwise as long as it stays above zero it should be a non event.

Later the US session has the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index expected to rise to 10. As long as it don’t disappoint then we may see equities rise along with risk currencies but will most likely have the most impact pushing the GU since the GBP seems to be the strongest currency on the block with all the good data coming from the UK lately.

With tomorrow being Good Friday I will be taking the day off as well. Of course I will do this commentary but I recommend everybody take the day off as well since there will be low volume and potential for crazy moves if any tape bombs are dropped.

Happy Trading


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