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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 17, 2014

The EUR/USD did not quite make the third push I expected Friday. Most likely due to the end of week flows but as price has moved this morning the three lines I have marked for pushes are still valid with the push up to 1.3722. At this point its rather sloppy but considering these breaks during the Asian session are (more often than not) a fake out before a run in the opposite direction I will have a small bias for the reversal today. The best place for the short will be stop run to the Asian highs but if we get any conviction above them during London the likelihood they will continue pushing to the upside is much higher. If that does happen then the gap low from this morning will be the best level to take a long from at 1.3690 or possibly the current Asian lows but I will want a clear set up and have the conviction during the London session. Lastly if they do push a good distance above the Asian highs and show conviction up there they may only run it back to 1.3706 but again they will have to show me they will not let it pass the level in order to take the long there.

I should also mention that current chatter I see is expecting the USD weakness to continue longer term but that is no reason to be bias long today. They will most likely do a run to try and push weak holders out of the market first. If they don’t then that will show the conviction on USD weakness and I will look for that to continue. Having said all that, we do also know that a strong Euro is not in Europe or more importantly Germanys best interests, so I will be watching out for any tape bombs doing some verbal intervention that they always do several times before any physical intervention moves.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has pretty much gone ballistic making new yearly highs and then blowing them out again this morning during the Asian session. The next level it is likely to test is from 2009 at 1.6872 but also has a significant daily level at 1.6843 where todays ADR currently sits that might provide a price where they try to flush out weak holders from also. Having said that the conviction is high and they could either keep the run up going or reverse any time. The best course of action will be to keep an open mind on direction today and look for a potential a short at 1.6843 with a clear set up or look for the long at the gap lows this morning at 1.6747 with the same.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The forex calendar is rather bare today so barring any tape bombs we should see more price action based moves. For those Aussie traders out there they do have their RBA Meeting Minutes late in the day or early Asian session, which ever you prefer so watch out for that.

Happy Trading


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1 Comment

  1. LJay
    LJay February 17, 05:11

    Please note that Monday Feb 17th is a banking and financial holiday in the USA and typically slows the trading session some.

    Reply to this comment

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