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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 28, 2013

The EUR/USD is quite a bit clearer today with a first push to the upside. Of course we got some help from helicopter Ben defending his QEternity policy stating he was more concerned about deflation and employment than inflation at this time. Something tells me that he most likely wont be concerned about inflation until its much too late. One never knows just how long this can last so we will just ride this wave until it comes crashing down on Bernankes head.

I did follow my plan and took the EUR/USD short from 1.3111 yesterday and eventually got taken out at break even thanks to good old Ben. Thanks buddy.

Today since we have the first push up the bias is long. With the Asian markets pushing up initially this morning I expect this range to be held and the drop down for the manipulation at the break out level of 1.3122 during the London session. If that cant hold I will look for the psych level of 1.3100 or possibly the 1.3080. I’m not going to disregard the possibility of the short but it will need to be very clear to over ride a long bias today.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 28, 2013

The GBP/USD seems to be more in a state of confusion stuck in this 145 pip range so I will be keeping an open mind on this pair today. The levels I will be watching are the 1.5188 for the short and 1.5120 for a possible long. Having said that the manipulation at these levels will need to be clear and I would prefer a stop run in this situation mainly because the 1.5188 level has 2 more levels right behind it they may want to test and the 1.5120 is in the middle of yesterdays chop with the next significant level to the downside being yesterdays low that is pretty far away at 1.5079. 

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 28, 2013

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Forex News Today

Again we dont have much data from Euro land today. There is German Unemployment data along with German and Euro Zone CPI figures but without a big miss on these there wont be much movement. The chance for the disappointment is higher than a miss to the upside and would most likely be used to manipulate more than anything.

The UK has nothing worth noting.

The US has the weekly Unemployment data and GDP figures coming out at the same time so i expect the GDP will run the show baring a large miss in unemployment. GDP is expected to rise above the zero level but not by much and if there is the miss to the downside it will be USD negative as the market will expect Ben to “get to work” on that.

Happy Trading


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