Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 4, 2014
The EUR/USD did not run the third push as I expected yesterday instead testing the higher level at 1.3531 closing around the days highs. This does lower the probability for the third push but I will have a small bias for the short again today. With the short run up yesterday due to the strength in the EUR/GBP and the risk aversion scenario playing out in equities the Euro should be weakening also. Having said that I will also expect some work from the plunge protection team coming in if stocks fall too much further which will also keep the Euro from dropping somewhat.
The best level I see for the short is the 1.3531 level from yesterday but if they cant stop it there they may run stops as high as the daily low at 1.3542. I will be open for a long but will need to see that they wont let price pass the 1.3480 level or if they play the breakout traders at both ends of the Asian range I will consider the long with clear manipulation at 1.3511. If it gets some conviction below there during the London session I will be holding the short bias.
The GBP/USD made the third push down yesterday for a run of over 140 pips. I will have the bias for the reversal today but with the daily close beyond the level I expected the test and bounce from we may just get an extended push to the downside after a small pullback. If I do get in the long for a reversal it will be off a stop run to the lows and I will only hold for the 50 pip run to 1.6357 if I cant watch price to manage it manually. In order to take a short I will want to see either the conviction below yesterdays lows and pullback to 1.6330 or possibly a clear trapping pattern at the Asian highs. If it does break the next daily low is down just above the ADR at 1.6214 so if I manage to catch the short I will hold for a longer run.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare today with nothing that significant being released. Barring any tape bombs we will most likely see the risk aversion keep up unless the plunge protection team steps in. We will have to wait and see. In all reality they may not have much to ammunition to stop the free fall but we can safely assume they will try.
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