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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD January 22, 2014

Now that we have two full days of chop on the EUR/USD the probability of getting the third push has gone down significantly so today I will be keeping an open mind on direction. Its still possible they will make the push but without seeing any conviction to do so over two days tells me they aren’t sure that they want to open the spigot to the downside just yet. As it stands right now with the push to yesterdays highs during Asia the best level to short from will be either the Asia highs if I see the range widen to the downside or the range between 1.3580 and 1.3592 just below where the hourly 200 ema sits.

In order to have confidence in a turn from the range I prefer to see price run up during Asia rather than in the London session but if the manipulation is clear and a good lower risk entry presents its self I will take it early in the London session. Otherwise I will be open for the long but the best level is yesterdays lows which I doubt it will reach before a move upwards. If we get the conviction to the upside during London after the current highs hold during the Asian session then the Asian lows are a valid level and the highs as well if the conviction runs it up high enough and we get the pullback with manipulation at the back side of the Asian highs.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD potentially has the second push upward showing some conviction but as members well know I am always weary of continuing pushes after two full days of chop. Therefore I will have a slight upward bias on this pair today while keeping an open mind for the short at the significant daily level just above the psych 1.6500. Again here I would prefer to see the break and fake out to the upside during the Asian session to take the short. Otherwise the potential for the long is a little higher coming off the pullback to 1.6451 or just below at 1.6440. If those don’t hold then they will probably test the 200 ema at 1.6414 but if they intend to push it higher it will have to be worth spending the money to go that far back in the chop and if that does happen I hope my criteria for the short gets hit before the move and that’s where I will be taking profit.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The only high impact news to speak of today is the Unemployment data and  BOE Meeting Minutes from the UK. With the recent data being better than expected these both have the higher probability of being positive for the GBP today. Having said that the one that has potential to disappoint is the Claimant count change. Just because people are buying more things to make Retail Sales jump doesn’t necessarily mean people are getting jobs so I will be paying a little more attention if that disappoints big while still looking to see good come from the Meeting Minutes.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm…

This morning I went over my most recent issue of this publication I get often and thought there were some things many if not all of you would benefit from reading about gold. Yes we all know now that just about everything under the sun is manipulated by the big boys but this article goes into some detail about just who was the beneficiary and why they seem to think they must do these back door bailouts to save what they call systemic banks. This is just a small piece to peak your interest about the manipulation to save the Rothschilds and AIG in the late 90s when then Chancellor Gordon Brown announced like Homer Simpson that the UK would be selling 400 tonnes of its gold. Then a back door Washington Agreement and the quote below was after the UK sold all its gold, called it a success even though they lost their butt and prices spiked dueto real demand. I know what you are probably thinking. Just like Grant said. “What the heck is AIG doing neck deep in gold?” Then not 10 years later AIG needed another bailout from the US government. A very interesting read and here is the full article.

(Jesse’s Café Américain): In front of 3 witnesses, Bank of England Governor Eddie George spoke to Nicholas J. Morrell (CEO of Lonmin Plc) after the Washington Agreement gold price explosion in Sept/Oct 1999. Mr. George said “We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake.

Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K.

You want to find a smoking gun at the crime scene? Well this one has fingerprints on it and the words “Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England” carved into the butt.

Lastly here is  some entertaining Nigel Farage that I know you all enjoy. Even though I always get a kick from his speeches like this the saddening part is he is spot on most of the time and the same goes here. Entertaining but tragic at the same time.

Happy Trading


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1 Comment

  1. dave hawkins
    dave hawkins January 22, 20:18

    I see that there was a STOP RUN up near the 200 EMA price… so I took the trade at 1.3565 on the euro…also the 1HR candle had a long wick, which meant a very strong rejection.
    … what do you think?


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