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Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD July 19, 2013

The EUR/USD stayed in a 60 pip range yesterday showing us they really have no clear direction. If I look hard I can find 2 pushes down but as I always say to members the harder we have to look to see the pushes the less reliable they are. Considering this I will be keeping an open mind on direction today. I should also mention the head and shoulders pattern that is forming as I type this and is typical of how they start the reversals so being open on direction is the best way to trade this pair today.

The levels I will be looking at for entries are the 1.3120 for a short keeping in mind that yesterdays highs are right behind so the manipulation could happen in that small range. The same is true about the level for a potential long position. With Wednesdays lows holding price up yesterday it is still a valid level but if they want to get stops they will run it down below yesterdays lows at 1.3065.

EUR/USD 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has a wider range than the Euro but the same situation applies with regard to direction today. That 80 pip push was fully retraced and the daily close shows there wasn’t much interest in selling other than inducing shorts while the big boy buy before the UK news came out. We discussed this in the live London session yesterday along with the same thing happening before the news on Wednesday as well and it was too bad neither day actually gave me a clear entry per my rules before the news. I can say that some of our more aggressive members that were discussing the potential of them just inducing shorts did take the trade did well. Good job guys. You guys make me consider letting aggressive Chad out of the box more often but I doubt that will happen 😉

The levels I will be looking to short from start with the 4hr 200 EMA (Black) that has been getting quite good respect over the last 2 days but in order for it to be a significant level I will need to see price test down into the Asian range pretty deep during the London session but with a range of 34 pips already they may not do the stop run below it. Otherwise the 1.5240 level has held well but with the overall highs just behind that I will need to see a clear set up. The potential long levels I will be considering are the Asian lows but I want to see price leave the Asian range closer to the top side rather than the bottom and then push down with a clean set up playing the breakout traders to the lows. This could still happen with price leaving the box at the lows but I consider that a more aggressive entry so if that happens the chance of me missing the trade goes up since I will want a great entry. Otherwise the 1.5180 level looks better and we may see a push all the way to yesterdays lows before we get the manipulation we look for. 

GBP/USD 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The calendar today is pretty much bare of any substantial news other than CPI data from Canada for all you USD/CAD or EUR/CAD traders out there 😉

Have a great weekend all.


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