Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD June 7, 2013
So of course this morning I wake up to a what the heck caused that moment. The USD got a blanket party and came out rather bloody for what seems to be no apparent reason. I did see that European peripheral spreads shrunk up rather tight which does explain some of that but I’m thinking either the NFP figures were given to the big boys a day early so they could suck in as many longs as possible before they slam it down today or it really is Draghi and his trash for cash program kicking into full speed and everybody and their brother were buying junk bonds from the PIIGS.
Looking at the price action alone it looks to be an exhaustion move at the highs and I will be expecting at least a pullback today. There is a good chance the EUR/USD don’t do anything until NFP later on in the US session but the pullback is the highest probability during the London session today. The levels marked in red are all daily levels while the black are the potential manipulation points for a short at 1.3253 and 1.3275. If there is no entry for the short I will consider the long in the 1.3194- 1.3175 range. Not only are these daily levels but also where the an inefficient move stops on the 15 minute chart during the move up yesterday.
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The GBP/USD had the same sort of price action with the exception of running an extra 70+ pips compared to the Euro. Here I will expect the pullback also but the chance for a range bound market until NFP is there also. Having said that the most recent inefficient move runs down to the 1.5525 area so that’s where I will expect the pullback to if they are going to flush out the longs before a move higher. Again the red lines are daily levels while the black will be were I look for the manipulation. If we don’t get a stop run to the 1.5617 level and see the hourly close above it will most likely go to the overall highs so I will look for the long if that happens but will prefer the short during the London session with the stop run to 1.5617. If it does manage to run down without an entry I will look for the long around 1.5525.
Forex News Today
The scheduled releases are light other than NFP during the US session. There is German Industrial Production a couple hours before but in order to get a good move from it the miss will need to be big. Otherwise it will get ignored for the most part.
My thoughts for NFP are for a disappointment but I doubt it will be big. The bar s set pretty low with an expected increase of 5K. Even if it does surprise to the upside I highly doubt it will effect the Unemployment Rate and that will be unchanged. The print fest will continue and USD weaken further.
Have a great weekend
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