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Daily Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD January 25, 2013

I know I was wishing that they just make up their mind but this was not what I expected. The EUR/USD pops for a 100+ pip run up while the GBP/USD pops the 1.5800 level and runs down. Anybody long the EUR/GBP did well yesterday. 🙂 However for me it was a no trade day. No worries, on to Friday. 

While we do have a clear first push up on the EUR/USD. It is still in the 140+ pip range its been holding for almost 2 weeks so I will still be treating it with caution and an open mind on direction. Having the 1.3400 daily resistance not far above price this morning my thoughts are it will try and test that area today. A stop run above those highs will be what I would like to see and possibly take the risk reward trade around 1.3408 or so. If it gets there on a news release I will stay out since there are a few ones today that have potential to make them think its warranted to break through the level and keep up the push above I will discuss later.

I am still hopeful for the long position also of which I would prefer since we do have the clean push to the upside. The best level to be looking for the manipulation in that case will be the break out of the Wednesdays highs of  highs at 1.3352. Having said that there is the possibility that it hold here at Tuesdays highs and if it does hold all through the Asian session we may only get the manipulation to the Asian lows today. Taking the entry there I will need to see some very clear candle patterns showing me they don’t intend to let it drop further.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Jan. 25, 2013

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The GBP/USD finally made the break below the 1.5800 level that’s been holding it up for several days now with a nice 90+pip push down. Showing this sort of conviction with a daily close below the level tells me they have more downside to push it. Since it was in the third push chop for several days I consider this a first push down scenario without having a false push up to shake out the weak shorts. 

The level it bounced off of at yesterdays lows is also a daily level from August and it is fairly significant. However with the way the daily chart closed I am sticking with the bias for the short today. I am not discounting the possibility for a long but I will only take the long position with a clear hourly stop run to yesterdays lows of 1.5754. The trade I prefer will be the short from around 1.5800 with some clear manipulation there. Depending on how wide the Asian range is we may only get the manipulation to its highs for the short but to consider that I will want to see the range be at least 35 pips or more.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Jan. 25, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start off with German IFO Business Climate expected to improve and considering the surprise to the upside with the Manufacturing and Services PMI figures yesterday this had potential to do the same. However there is something of note that is not on the calendar. Its the LTRO repayments that will be released by the ECB today. There are a couple different scenarios being kicked around as to how well it will go off. If there is a larger than expected repayment it will likely make peripheral bond yields rise (Euro negative) If there is a lower than expected pay off then it will signal that the European banks still need the LTRO liquidity and are most likely still in trouble financially. Again Euro negative, however in the first scenario expect the Euro to spike first due to things looking rosy at the banks before yields start to rise and then we get the drop. The second scenario will most likely cause the drop to start rather quick so be careful out there today. Here is the link to the Zero Hedge article that describes it in more detail.

The UK has their GDP figures released expected to get into positive territory. If this disappoints and shows they are still in technical recession the GBP will drop across the board due to expectations of more Asset Purchases by the BOE.

The US only has New Home sales expected to rise after last months disappointment and without a big surprise I doubt there will be much from this. The US housing needs to show consistently higher numbers to make a recovery believable and we just aren’t getting them.

How about some Friday humor.

I found this pic on our Facebook page posted by one of our friends and it really says it all about what the US (and the rest of the world for that matter) needs in 8 words. As you could expect this post has over 14K likes and 26K shares 🙂

The Department of Common sense

Having said that we need to keep in mind that COMMON SENSE IN THIS WORLD IS NOT VERY COMMON. Especially among our leaders.

Have a great weekend all


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