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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 12, 2013

Things are looking a bit clearer on direction for the EUR/USD today. The best way to look at this is we have a first push to the upside with a nice 95 pip run after the false 70+ pip push to the downside Wednesday. Since this is a first push scenario I will be open for the short from the highs but will want a clear stop run and a good entry to take it from the 1.3137 area. Otherwise my bias is for the long today. The first level I will be looking to see manipulation is around 1.3095 but with the psych level just above we may see it there but I will want a clear set up and good entry due to the fact that there is also the level just below at 1.3082 which is also where the 15 minute 200 EMA sits.

Eur/Usd 1 horue chart April 12, 2013

The GBP/USD has also shown now that the push down was false making the nice push above the chop. At this point we could be looking at a second intraday push expecting the third or a first long term push for the first. The clearer way to look at it is we have 2 intraday pushes especially since the pair has been trading off the intraday pushes more often as of late. My bias will be to the upside today and le levels I will be looking for a long will be around 1.5380 or just below at 1.5368. An entry at the 80 level is more likely but with the support just below they may want to test and try to push longs out of the market so I will want a good entry if I see the manipulation at the 80 level.

Gbp/Usd 1 hr chart April 12, 2013

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Forex News Today

The European calendar is light again today with just Euro Zone Industrial Production being the only medium impact event. Expected to get into positive figures by a hair at .1 %. I have my doubts there will be much of a surprise on this but if so has a higher probability of disappointing rather than being positive. However considering how fudged all figures are getting these days it wouldn’t surprise me.

The US starts off with PPI figures that I doubt will have much reaction with out a large miss. Mainly because the Retail Sales data comes out at the same time. Expectations are for a drop to just above the big zero. A miss to the downside will most likely cause USD weakness but I expect the market will wait for the Bernanke speech for the late day Eur/Usd pump. Michigan Consumer sentiment is also in there but it seems that consumer data is being ignored these days and the markets are only looking to see that the QE is not going to stop.

Friday Humor anyone?

As I look through my news sources this morning I see that the North Koreans are most likely getting ready to do another test rocket launch. Although they did just say they have delayed for awhile because they are having problems with Windows 8. Your kidding right? These guys are trying to launch a rocket using the same software I have on my home computer. The same software that needs 10 updates every day to just keep from freezing up my screen? I have to admit its better now than when I got it last week but I wouldn’t even use it to launch a boat at this time.

I also am a little concerned about this test. not because I think they may aim for the Philippines where I live but the chance of a malfunction is high and we could definitely see debris fall from the sky. We all know how well their last test to get a rocket into space went. This is from Wikipedia. 

On 13 April 2012 at 07:38:55 KST, lift-off was made. Ninety seconds after liftoff, the rocket exploded and crashed into the Yellow Sea near Gunsan, South Korea

I think they would have to at least triple the 90 second flight time to reach here so that does make me feel a little better but lets just say that they get all the Windows 8 updates loaded today that makes it possible. Then we might be in a little more trouble. 🙂

Make sure you watch the short video of the last test at this link. The North Korea Missile Test Launch.

Lastly some may find this walking the fine line between humorous and sickening. I have to admit I am still on the fence but thought I would share. Members know I am not the kind of guy who rubs things in by saying “I told you so” but this time I am making an exception due to the commentary I wrote on the Cyprus bail in-out just after the announcement. The question is just how much money fled before the announcement due to inside information leaks? Well enough that the investigators have stopped looking into it because the culprits had plenty of time to wipe clean all the evidence of the transfers.

“Our computer forensic technologists have found that the computers of two employees, (former CEO) Mr. (Andreas) Eliades and (senior manager group treasury and private banking) Christakis Patsalides, have had wiping software
loaded, which is not part of the standard software installations at the BoC
,” A&M said. “Mass deletion of data appears to have been undertaken on the Patsalides computer on October 18, 2012.”

In a day full of stunners, we next get news from Cyprus, where a few weeks after the start of the “investigation” into who pulled their cash out of the country’s doomed banking system in advance of the confiscation news on March 16 (and where even the current president was
implicated in transferring over
€20 milion in family money to London) the
parliamentary committee tasked with tracking down the leaks, has suspended its probe. As it turns out, it was “all the central bank’s fault”, which was charged with providing the data. The head of the Cypriot parliament’s ethics committee, which was due to look into a list detailing transfers of more than 100,000 euros from the two major banks – Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank – said on Tuesday that the list fell short of what he had requested. “It was with great disappointment and anger that, when we opened the envelope, we realized it contained data for only 15 days even though we had asked for a year,” lawmaker Demetris Syllouris told reporters. This kind of behavior is unacceptable.

And now for the icing on the cake. The Trioka thought they would get away with only doling out the 11 billion but due to the leaks and literally bleeding of money by people with insider information we get this.

As was reported in the previously presented Cypriot Debt Sustainability Analysis, which among other things had this stunner inside of it, things in Cyprus have gone from bad to worse in the brief span of a month. 35% worse to be exact, because this is how much the total bailout of Cyprus has grown by in a few shorts weeks, from €17 to €23 billion, which happened because just as we predicted the stealth outflow from banks was much worse (read bigger) than previously reported, leaving banks with a far bigger hole to plug.

Isnt that just great. I don’t know whether to laugh or puke. I wonder who will be paying the extra 6 billion now? Insured depositors? Watch out the rest of Europe the UK and USA. This coming soon to a bank near you.

Happy trading


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  1. alex123
    alex123 April 12, 06:21

    Here’s more on the Cyprus/Eurozone that makes interesting reading. Europe is in a desperate situation that’s about to get a lot worse.

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad April 12, 11:11

      Very interesting Alex. Thanks for posting this. I did see that they were selling their gold but the their central bank said they hadn’t even thought about selling their gold. Little did they know it was built in as a clause of their bail in/out.

      Just goes to show one needs to read the fine print when ever they sign any contract. 😉


      Reply to this comment

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