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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 18, 2014

As I mentioned in yesterdays commentary I will be taking the day off trading today. With most of the markets around the world closed today we will most likely see erratic moves that make it much more risky for us to be taking entries. The EUR/USD has already seen these moves on some pairs this morning as the Asian markets opened. For those die hard traders out there I recommend that since Asia is open along with the US markets later today, restrict any entries to those times of day when you have the lowest probability of seeing the sharp moves on low liquidity.

Although their are two clear pushes on the EU to the upside I wouldn’t be treating this as a long only day as we usually would. The way they have completed the pushes each taking movement over two days along with several markets being closed today. If I were trading I would prefer the long but still open for the short. Having said that if there is any conviction below Wednesdays lows they will most likely push it to the overall lows just below. Otherwise the lowest risk trade will be from Wednesdays lows around the psyche 1.3800 level. The problem I see with that is the proximity to current price so would want to see it push upward first. If it does get conviction below the lows the best level to short from will be the hourly 200 EMA at 1.3819.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD has shown the first push up was most likely a fake out but in order to be sure we need to see conviction below 1.6773. I normally would say that needs to happen during the London session but with the majority of the banks closed in Europe today it may be shaky unless its very clear and even then price could spike back on low liquidity. Otherwise the long from a stop run to the Asian lows right now is valid also. It took the Asian drop to fulfill what we would be looking for in an intraday push down so if they do try an push it up early today and run stops to those lows the long has a decent chance but a good entry should be important. That way if they do run it down one could get out with a smaller hit if the conviction shows up.

On a side note the GU short I took in the live training session during London yesterday I closed for 43 pips this morning. As I was getting ready to get to bed for the night I just couldn’t bring myself to close it with just 20+ pips after it had the great manipulation pattern at the daily level during the US session. I did tighten up my stop to +14 pips just above there and set my take profit above the ADR. Once I woke up to check I didn’t want to hold it and give back a nice trace gaining twice my risk. I hope those who took the same trade got close to the same profit as most should have closed when the US market closed for the day yesterday. I would appreciate any comments letting me know how members did. Thanks.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is bare today but that don’t mean there wont be some tape bombs dropped so be careful out there.

Have a great weekend all.


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