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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 25, 2014

The EUR/USD did get a little itchy yesterday when the ECBs Nowotny started talking about what the plans looking forward would be. First saying they were open to QE and rate cuts then taking that back with the statement of they wont be doing anything until June this year. Of course when Super Mario had his speech more or less reiterating the same thing a couple hours later with a bit more flash we got the drop before pulling back to finish the day close to the highs. As I suspected the more we see from the EU the more I am convinced they have no idea where they will be pushing this pair next. On the one hand the ECB really needs a weaker Euro but Germany is still going strong so they will never back any QE. On the other the US data is only getting worse with the exception of Durable goods yesterday with bad housing data. What a conundrum. I cant say I would want to be any of those guys in charge.

As for my bias today I will be open as the first push up seems false with potentially the topping formation. There was the conviction to the downside also but with the full pullback and close above the days open leaves that questionable also. At this time I think the best levels to short from will be yesterdays high at 1.3841 but if they don’t pull it back before the Asian session ends they will most likely run it to 1.3849. Otherwise the levels I will be looking to potentially get long will be at the hourly 200 EMA or just below at 1.3812. if they don’t stop it there then they will likely test the four hour 200 or just above at the psych 1.3800.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD didn’t make its second push leaving doubt they will be making it today. It also shows potential bottoming as it came back into the range. I will still have a smaller bias for the short due to the short move yesterday but a bit more open on where they will push. What adds a little bit more probability is the break out during the Asian session but I will need to see them push it down more before I look to use the Asian highs as a level. If they don’t widen up the Asian range they will likely push it to 1.6820 psych level just above.

I will still be open for the long since we do have a first push scenario and potential bottoming. The best level I see right now is the 1.6780 where the hourly 200 is but since its holding well above the 1.6800 for now if they do manage to push up and show they intend to hold it above there during the London session along with some conviction above the Asian highs during London I will consider the long there. What I wont want to see is the run to the 16820 as they show conviction since that’s where I will be looking to short.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only news we have during the London session is from the UK with Retail Sales figures. The monthly data expected to drop while YOY they are expecting a small rise. Some how that don’t make sense to me so I will watch out for a big miss. With the bar set pretty low I see the chance for a miss upwards on the monthly data as a higher probability and I will be watching for the set up before hand.

The US has the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data expected to rise slightly but I have my doubts it will do much since its already sold to the highest bidder well ahead of the release so will mostly be priced in.

Have a great weekend


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