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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis April 3rd 2014

The EUR/USD did get the reversal off the three intraday pushes yesterday with a clear first push down. It does barely cover the move we require but has the conviction below the lows where the third push started. Today I will be bias for the short but considering this is a first push I will be open for the long if I see the typical manipulation of the breakout traders holding the Asian range then hitting them at the highs and a stop run to the lows.

What I would prefer is to see them test the lows during the Asian session and leave the box close to the lows. If that happens the Asian range will still be tight so the probability of them running to the 1.3777 level is higher, however if they run the breakout traders to the lows first I will consider the short at the Asian highs with a good trapping pattern. The daily lows are holding it for now so that does raise the probability of the Asian highs holding.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD has a different story with it holding the 40 pip range yesterday. It tried to make a run up but was rejected at the 1.6656 level where it broke down Tuesday. All things considered it looks as though the will be attempting the push down today but that is not enough to give me a bias on direction. With the Asian range widening up early this morning it does open up our options for  a trade today. If I see it run down holding these highs I will be looking for the short at 1.6656 but will want to see them leave the Asian box around the middle or lower. Otherwise if price is at the highs then they will most likely test higher so I will want a very clear set up to short from there. If they do break to the upside I will consider 1.6673 but with the 1.6682 level just above having better potential I will be more cautious.

I will also be open for the long at the lows at 1.6620 but exercising a bit of caution there too with the several levels just below.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with Services PMI data from the big five Euro Zone countries and the EZ as a whole but barring a couple or more large misses the big boys will be waiting for the ECB interest Rate and later press conference. The Rate decision could have a big impact if they do decide to go with negative rates on the non headline rates. I highly doubt they will drop the main rate but its possible. If they do go negative then the Euro will take the hit. Probably more so against the GBP but the EU will feel it too.

The UK also has its Services PMI also and if this is as expected or higher the EUR/GBP will likely move down also but may be limited waiting for the Super Mario and crew.

The US has ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to improve so as long as it don’t have a large disappointment we will most likely get the finish of the second push that will likely start during the London session.

Happy Trading


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