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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis August 28, 2013

The way the price action went yesterday on the EUR/USD I will be considering this the third push up and have a bias for the reversal today. Having said that there is another way to look at it in that we have a failed second push from last Friday the a failed first push down. The problem with that scenario is that we wont know its a failed first push down until we see some conviction to the upside with a push above the high Friday. Considering all this I will be open for the long also but the best place for it will be down at the range between 1.3363 and 1.3355 where the 15 minute 200 EMA is sitting.

Otherwise I will prefer the short during the London session from yesterdays highs close to the psych level of 1.3400. The small problem I see with the short position from there is the close proximity to current price. Even if they run it down the range I like to see for the Asian session has potential to be much smaller than I like. I may have to let aggressive Chad out of the box today and will surely consider it if the set up looks good and I can get a good entry. 

EU 1hr chart Aug. 28

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The GBP/USD has the three pushes down over 5 days along with a nice bottoming formation so we should be expecting the reversal to the upside here today. If that does happen and the USD is weak its going to drag the Euro with it some what also. Having said that, with the fit the EUR/GBP has been having lately that may not be the case. The best place for the long is a test of the bottoming formation but there is the 1.5522 level that is rather weak the way I see it. The best scenario to trade from there will be seeing them play the breakout traders to the Asian highs first with the same at the lows with some clear manipulation.

I will also be open for the short on this pair due to the 74 pip pullback it has already done. That may be all the reversal we get before moving on to extended pushes. The best place for the short will be a stop run to the 1.5555 proven resistance with a bit of a push down here during the Asian session as they accumulate some position before the push. I should also mention that the bounce yesterday was off the daily 200 EMA so that may take some work to break. There is also a smaller chance they only run it to the Asian highs before pushing it off but I will wait for a better entry if we get the trapping there so my stop is well above the 1.5555 level.

GU 1 hr chart

Forex News Today

The economic calendar is extremely light with nothing of note for scheduled releases. However there is a BOE Governor Carney speech just before the US session opens so the GBP pairs could get a bit volatile during that. Its always interesting when the head of a central bank opens their mouth these days.

Happy Trading


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