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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis December 18, 2013

Surgeon Generals Warning: Trading close to the Holidays can be dangerous to your account.

Now that we have the warning out of the way the EUR/USD is doing as expected so far and staying inside the range between 1.3800 and 1.3700 so it is likely do stay that way barring any surprises in the news today. There are some big events so taking the day off is a great idea. Having said that again the safest trades will be from the highs or lows of the range between 1.3800 and 1.3723. Otherwise they seem to have no clue which direction to go and are most likely exiting positions waiting for what the Fed does today. Be safe out there.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD is much more interesting today with the false push up and first push down. In normal conditions I would be looking for the daily low from Monday to hold here then see price leave the Asian box at the lows or close to it and watch for the manipulation at the Asian highs. It already has a decent size Asian range but would be better if it was a little larger. Otherwise they may play the breakout traders to the Asian lows first before they manipulate at the highs. If the level at 1.6288 breaks and has conviction above they will likely run it to yesterdays highs. Any potential longs would be at 1.6233 where the four hour 200 ema sits or just below at yesterdays lows.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start off with German Ifo Business Climate and with most German data as of late has more potential to surprise to the upside. Having said that the better than expected figures haven’t really created any conviction on the EU so I have my doubts it will today and they will be waiting on the Fed later in the day to see if there is any token taper. The consensus is they will cut 10 billion just to show they can but may do nothing so be careful if you are in a trade at the time because low liquidity could easily get you slipped on a stop.

The UK has the BOE meeting minutes so that could make the GBP spike depending on what was said in their meeting.

The Fed data release and Bernanke speech is after London close as always so liquidity will be even lower that time of day. It would be safer to exit any trades before that comes out.

Here is a good Max Keiser episode from yesterday to enjoy while you wait today. The real interesting part is the second half when he discusses the ponzie scheme we call our financial system. The comparison is so close its scary. Has there ever been a ponzie scheme that worked over time? Not that I can recall.

Happy Trading


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