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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis December 4th 2013

The first push on the EUR/USD Monday proved to be most likely false with the full retrace yesterday. At this point there is no bias on direction and playing this range is the safest option. Having said that with price in closer proximity to the highs the short has a slightly higher probability but I will be keeping my mind open for the long due to the potential this is a first intraday push to the upside. The level I will start looking for the short is 1.3608 but will prefer the stop run above yesterdays highs. Keeping in mind they may run the over all highs so I will want a good entry. The problem with a long is the potential levels for the manipulation are not all that great. The best I see is the London/ New York overlap from yesterday at 1.3572. Otherwise if I cant catch the short for a 40-50 pip run and it don’t give something really clear there it will most likely drop to around 1.3557 where we have the break out level and the hourly 200 ema.

On a side note I did take the Euro short during the end of the live London session yesterday. We had a beautiful trapping pattern form at the manipulation box and I got a great entry at 1.3570. Then it proceeded to give more trapping increasing the probability it would go off. I was watching it close for a couple more hours because it just wouldn’t shift off. The only problem with the trade was it wasn’t at a good level yet and had missed the 1.3580 by around 5 pips. Once I sat watching for 3 hours I decided to close manually with a 3 pip loss since if it don’t shift off within that time period the chance what we were seeing being true manipulation diminishes substantially along with leaving me open to manipulation during the US open.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD had the same sort of movement retracing the intraday push we had Monday which tells me they are running mostly on the USD right now and even though the UK Construction PMI was much better than expected yesterday it couldn’t create the break to the upside. Here again the safe way to trade this is from the high or low of this range. As of right now with price being in the middle of it we could see either side tested for a 40-50 pip trade. Otherwise if it can widen the range here during the Asian session to the upside I will consider the long at the Asian lows with the right price action. If it runs down and breaks yesterdays New York close I will wait for the test of the lows since the possibility of this being an intraday push upwards is there. However having the bias to the upside is not warranted since its gone back into the chop.

GU 1hr chart

 Forex News Today

The calendar picks up a little bit today starting with Services PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the Euro Zone. All are expected to be flat so a big surprise could get us some manipulation. Of course its the German figures to watch but being a Manufacturing based economy it will need to be a big miss which I doubt but is possible. The bigger Services number comes from the UK about 30 minutes later and will have more impact on a miss since the UK is a service based economy. If the GU does set up within an hour or two of the release I will take the trade since it is the one pair that sets up before the news most often.

The US has ADP Nonfarm later in the day with expectations of a bump to 173K. If this manages to come out inline it will be good for the USD temporarily anyway. With the bigger Nonfarm on Friday this usually takes a large miss to do much. Having said that since we have an expectation of a rise of 40K it may not need to miss much to the upside to get some USD strength running.

Happy Trading


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