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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 25, 2013

WOW! What a great weekend to be holding a short on the GBP/USD or a long on the EUR/JPY. That is of course if one has the nerve to be holding trades over the weekend these days. Not me of course. I don’t mind holding trades over night but holding over the weekend in this sort of tape bomb market is just crazy the way I see it. I feel sorry for those who got slipped on EJ shorts or GU longs. Its just not worth taking the risk. These moves were all thanks to Moody’s downgrading the UK on its sovereign debt late Friday and then early we get the news from Japan that the next head of the BOJ will be the ultra dovish “Haruhiko Kuroda, who has called for pumping more money into the economy, as its next central bank governor” this from the Nikkei news paper this morning.

The EUR/USD has already closed its small gap to the upside this morning and hovering around the 4 hour 200 EMA. I do consider the push down Friday as the third push with a clear 100 pip move. Its finding the support at a daily level also so the possibility for the reversal is good but I will be playing it safe today and looking to trade from Fridays high or low. There is 1 other level to watching between but as I always say the risk goes up taking trades in the middle of a third push chop. The level is todays Asian high so far at 1.3217. If I see some clear manipulation there I will be happy to take the short. There are a few reasons for this. One being the test and rejection of the breakout level from Thursday along with the hourly close below Thursdays lows on Friday. The thing to watch out for is that daily support holding again since if they do intend to break it to the downside they will probably be loading up and pushing the weak holders out beforehand. Any long position I will only consider from Fridays lows with a clear stop run below.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 25, 2013

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The GBP/USD is going down. There is almost no question about that in the short term. We have the false push up over Thursday and Friday and then the plummet late Friday and the gap down signaling the first push down is probably complete. I do think this gap will try and close but we may also see it hold below Thursdays lows here and maybe do the close during London today. What will end up holding it up will be negative data from the US when the market gets back to looking at who is the ugliest kid on the block. however even then its likely that the UK will be looking a little uglier. 

The question is where are the high probability points at this time? The way I see it is if it will hold below Thursdays lows all through Asia and leave the Asian box in the middle or close to the lows then the Asian highs will be an opportunity to see the manipulation. Otherwise if it leaves at the Asian highs the gap will most likely close and we will have the chance for a short around 1.5161. It could try and get as high as the 1.5200 psych level or even attempt to close the inefficient move from the news Friday but it will need some news to help it the way I see it.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 25, 2013

Forex News Today

The calendar is light today which is typical for a Monday. There are a couple things to watch out for though. Both are speeches late in the the day. One is from Jens Weidmann. Being the voice of Germany in this whole mess his words usually have an impact. If anything changes in his stance, which is unlikely then it will impact the Euro. A little bit later  BoC Gov Carney Speaks. Since he will be the next BOE head if he says anything again regarding the UK exiting unconventional measures there will be some movement for the GBP. however I think he has probably learned just how much his hands are tied when he takes his new post and wont say much about the UK. Even if he does my thoughts are the market will see it for what it is and just more jawboning and the move will be shorter lived. 

Happy Trading


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