Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis February 26, 2014
The EUR/USD didn’t make much of a move until the disappointing US news with the CB Consumer Confidence figures missing by almost two full points to the downside. After the initial spike price moved back into the days range closing slightly upwards not showing any conviction on direction yet again. It sure seems as though the big boys are waiting for something, not willing to stick their neck out and be the tall blade of grass that gets cut first.
At this point the levels for potential entries hasn’t really changed much with the 1.3761 level at the highs being best for a short while watching to see if they want to run stops to 1.3772. The potential for the long is a bit more risky at 1.3728 due to the close proximity to price at the moment but valid if we see typical patterns showing they are playing the breakout traders. The better level for a long that has more confluence with the hourly 200 EMA is yesterdays lows at 1.3714. If price reaches there I will be cautious since there is the 1.3705 level just below.
The GBP/USD actually made a first push to the upside from the lows so I will have a slight bias for the next push upwards but will be cautious since it has a lot of resistance at the 1.6725 level. The best level for the long position will be at yesterdays Asia lows with the confluence of the hourly 200 EMA. Having said that if it can push to the upside during the Asian session this morning I will consider the long from 1.6663. At this time is doesn’t look like they will but it is still early. The only way I will consider the short is if I see that they wont let price break above 1.6725 preferably seeing the stop run.
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Forex News Today
The economic calendar starts off with UK GDP figures. Expectations are for flat figures at .7% quarterly and 2.8 for the yearly release. At this point the chance for the surprise to the upside is better than a drop with only recently showing some disappointing data. In order for this to miss to the downside I would expect much more bad data than we have had so far. Probability is that it comes out close or as expected.
The US session only has New Home Sales and a Fed member speaking. With housing data being as big of a farce as the jobs report these days my thoughts are it will take a big miss to create any sustained move. I always have to remember that any surprise that create conviction moves are based on whether or not Janet will buy more or less bonds and so far everything looks as though she intends to keep the taper going so the USD could spike on this news but I doubt they will give us direction with it. That will come when they are ready and have a better idea of what Janet will be doing going forward.
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