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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 18, 2013

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Risk appetite was definitely on yesterday with the Euro, Dow and S&P having a nice run up. As expected the Spanish Bond auction went of stupendously along with other factors later in the day that seemed at least on the surface that the Republicans in the US are kinda-sorta thinking about raising the debt ceiling temporarily. I couldn’t help but laugh but it is what it is. The  total bombing of the Philly Fed Mfg figures were totally ignored. What a crazy market we are in these days. No worries though because the banks still leave the same trail. 🙂

Now we see the EUR/USD made the turn yesterday and we have a clean first push to the upside. I am a little concerned that it has a couple daily highs to break in order to see the second push but with what has been going on with the Euro strength this should continue. Maybe not today since its Friday but I do expect it next week if we don’t see it today. 

The level I will be most happy taking a long from today will be the lows during the US session at 1.3332. However with that price currently 45 pips away we will need to see the Asian session push it down at least half or more. Otherwise if we do get a short Asian range or a push up to break yesterdays highs then the Asian range lows will be where I start looking for the manipulation during the London session.

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1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Jan. 18, 2013

The GBP/USD has seen somewhat of an extended push down. It don’t actually count as a push in my view being only 80+ pips but the hourly closes below Wednesdays lows tell me it may have some more downside in it. It is finding some support at the daily 200 EMA that is also a significant daily low from November and if that can break and get a daily close below it has a bit of real estate below it can cover before it finds any significant support. The best way to trade this pair today will be with a stop run to the lows of 1.5953 for the long or possibly 1.6008 for the short. The short position will need to see the EUR/GBP breaking resistance to the upside but it hasnt been having much problems with that lately.

I have to admit I dont like it when the correlation falls apart between the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. At times like these we have to look closer at what the EUR/GBP is doing and significant levels its approaching. Having said that the EG has 20 pips to a daily level to the topside and if the 200 EMA can hold the GBP/USD from dropping we will see the EUR/USD take off and break its recent highs. 

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Jan. 18, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light for the Euro Zone today with nothing of note. 

The UK has its Retail sales expected to rise slightly. If we get the disappointment the chance of the GBP/USD dropping through yesterdays lows goes up substantially.

The US only has University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected to rise also but I dont expect much from it. 

Happy Trading


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