Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis January 24, 2014
The move on the EUR/USD yesterday off the better than expected PMI data from France and Germany to me seems over blown to me but we trade what we see. Having said that we have two pushes from the chop in one day so I will be bias for the next push today. There is no sign of a topping formation either but being Friday and creeping up on the end of the month there is a good chance that we see a deeper pullback before they make the move due to end of week/month flows. Price also went right up to a significant daily level at 1.3698 so breaking that will take some conviction today. What does give me reason to believe they will make the break is the US debt ceiling starting to be talked about again. It seems that the government has done their best to keep that out of the news until now so things should start to heat up if history shows us anything. Having said that we all know they will eventually raise the debt since they really have no choice but the fight will be the story to watch. Considering what happened last time it could be a non event with the majority of congress realizing there is no other option.
The best level I see for the potential long today is 1.3652 because it coincides with a daily level and allows for the deeper pullback. Otherwise the 1.3669 level is valid but I will want to see they clearly wont let it pass there before taking a long at that price. If we get the conviction during London above the highs then the Asian highs and lows come into play depending on how far they push before the pullback.
The GBP/USD made either an extended push up or a cleaner three push move from the two day chop. Once it made the conviction move during London it came back to test the break before moving up another 56 pips which is what I expect once we see the London big boys show that conviction. At this point the reversal has a higher probability but with no topping formation as of yet along with the USD weakness I will be open for either direction today. Again the end of week flows may hold that up so if we get the stop run to the highs it will be good to short. Otherwise if the highs hold I will be willing to take the long from 1.6591 with clean trapping. Otherwise if they do show the conviction above yesterdays highs during London then the 1.6614 becomes more significant and this pair has a ways to go to test the next daily level above 1.6700.
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Forex News Today
The economic Calendar is rather bare today so the end of week flows have a better chance of being what moves markets today. Otherwise since we have the US debt ceiling coming to the fore I will be keeping an eye out for tape bombs that have an effect on that. My expectations are that we will get more signs of the fight being much less than last time and if that happens things could actually go either way on USD strength or weakness. It will depend on how the big boys take it. What I mean by that is an easy increase could mean USD strength due to the lack of deadlock or possibility of default. On the other hand every increase brings the US closer to eventually defaulting due to any significant rise in interest rates in turn would mean more USD weakness.
Max Loses His Rag
Yesterday I mentioned this Max Kieser episode that he loses his cool the most I have seen in quite awhile. Again entertaining but the way I see it is he is only expressing the anger the 99% of the population should be feeling but are more interested in Dancing With The Stars, Kim K, Justin B take your pick. Enjoy.
Have a great weekend
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