Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis July 10, 2013
Now we have a clear false push up and first push down on the EUR/USD. I was rather convinced they were going to keep up the next push higher yesterdays after they made the hourly close above the previous days highs. However that was just a trick and if you look at the distance of the push from Mondays lows its almost exactly 90 pips. We did have some members take rather aggressive entries short who did well however I didn’t take a trade yesterday since there was no clear entry according to my rules. Good job guys and I hope you got most of the 100+ pip run.
Today I will be bias for the short and the best level to see the manipulation is around 1.2800 or a little higher at the daily lows from Friday and Monday. There is a chance the manipulation could be seen lower at the resistance during the end of the US session but it is less probable without a push down during the Asian session this morning.
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The GBP/USD is in the same position thanks to the massive miss on the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data yesterday. To be perfectly honest I didn’t think they would release figures that bad without some fudging but they did and the GBP got smashes across the board. That was until S&P came out with their downgrade of Italy and the Euro followed suit.
My bias will be sort on this pair today also, however with it not being able to close below Mondays lows on the daily chart it may have a deeper pullback. The 1.4857 level is a significant daily level from way back that so far has been holding and I would expect some loading up before the break. Having said that the situation may just be bad enough they wont care about trying to push more shorts out. The first place I will consider the short is the 1.4880 level but with the close proximity of that level it may want to test the psych 1.4900 before it turns or even reach as high as 1.4916-20
Forex News Today
There is only a couple significant events scheduled for today. The German CPI will most likely be ignored or used to manipulate with a small miss. Late in the day there is a US 10yr bond auction that has some potential to not go so well but judging from the past they wont have any problem offloading what they want. The interest rate will be what I watch. Then an hour later the FOMC Meeting Minutes is released so that will be interesting to see if the taper is mentioned heavily. A couple hours later after London has closed Ben steps up to the plate and do his dance. Should be an interesting latter part of the day for sure so be careful taking entries then.
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