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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis July 4, 2013

Happy Independence Day to my fellow countrymen out there today. Im not so sure we will get much movement today but if we do then it will happen either during the Asian or London session with the US markets closed for the day.

We are looking at a failed first push as of now and an intraday push to the upside back into the chop we had during last week. When I consider what caused this news wise it could be the slew of bad data from the US recently along with the coup in Egypt. At this point I am siding more with the bad data lessening the chance that Bernanke will taper the QEternity any time soon. this is good for stocks and bad for the USD so this should continue into the second push. The question is will it go today with the US on holiday. We will have to wait and see.

I am keeping an open mind on direction today and look to see clear manipulation at the significant levels. Since we do have the daily close above the 1.3000 level along with the test and support kicking in there it will be a good level to look for the long at. What concerns me is that the US closed early yesterday and the support doesn’t have the participation of the big boys. Therefore today I will want to see the test and reaction again during the London session to take a trade there. Otherwise a test of the 1.2980 level may be in order before any push to the upside. I will only be looking for the possible short at yesterdays high of 1.3032 with a clear stop run to that level during the London session. if nothing clear happens in the first few hours of London today I wont be taking any trades.

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EUR/USD 1hr chart July 4, 2013

The GBP/USD has made the same sort of move with the exception of it ran for almost 180 pips with the help of the EUR/GBP yesterday. Normally I would be looking at this as the first long term push but a move that large completes what we look for in 3 long term pushes all in one so its questionable at best. We also have what looks to be a clear topping formation at the 1.5300 level so again I will be keeping an open mind on this pair today. The level I will start looking for a long position is at 1.5248 while any shorts will be considered anywhere between 1.5280 and 1.5300 but any set up will need to be very clear and I prefer to see the stop run above yesterdays high.

GBP/USD 1hr chart July 4, 2013

Forex News Today

The big news on the calendar today is the BOE and ECB Rate decisions and more so the ECB Press Conference. I highly doubt Carney will increase BOE the Asset Purchases at his first meeting so that should be a non event but the next Inflation report should be interesting. Im not going to guess on what Super Mario will do but I half expect him to take advantage of the US holiday to try and push the Euro higher. The EZ does have GDP figures also. Expectations are for a decline again so a miss to the upside should be Euro positive.

Food For Thought

In light of the US celebrating our Independence I just wanted to ask the question of just what are we celebrating? Is it the creation of our great country? If that’s the case all is good. However considering the US has become an almost carbon copy of what the founding fathers were fighting against with England back in the day I wonder if there is that big of a reason to celebrate what the government has become. It sure seems to me with all the revelations as of late, the people should be rethinking what it means to be American and start demanding the government the constitution framed for us. Not the tyrannical bully that supports money and power, rather than a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

At this point a more accurate description would be a government of the money and power, for the money and power and by the money and power. All at the expense of the people. Sad I tell you.

Happy Trading


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