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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 12, 2013

The EUR/USD has shown us a clearer sign of direction yesterday with a first push to the upside from the lows and a 98 pip run. Now I will have a bias for the next push up today. I will still be open for a short since this could be a false intraday push but I do somewhat expect a test of the highs Friday around the 4 hour 200 EMA at 1.3122. 

The levels I will be looking for the long at will be todays Asian lows at the test of the support at the break out or the same 1.3016 level I was looking for the short in the March 11 commentary. There is the chance that it will get as low as 1.2987, however if its going to run that far down I am hoping it gives me a clear stop run to yesterdays highs first for a short entry.  Since the hourly 200 EMA is in close proximity to yesterdays highs there is a decent chance it will hold but the manipulation will need to be rather clear to trade against the first push. Otherwise the hourly close above yesterdays highs will be a clear signal they will be pushing it up today.

I did catch the short yesterday from the 1.3016 level after the nice set of manipulation candle patterns along with quite a few members , good job guys. Too bad it just never went anywhere and I ended up being hit break even on the New York reversal.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD March 12, 2013 

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The GBP/USD is the pair I will be looking to trade today. Showing that the first push down is holding even though we didnt get the second yesterday. It wont be clear they are abandoning a plan for lower prices until I see them chop through London today. Then it will be less clear and I will be treating it as a third push chop with direction unclear. At this point it does have a couple hourly closes below Fridays lows showing there was some conviction to the downside yesterday but with the new dynamic we are in with pretty much every market moving on the Fed printing money and the all burning question of if they will ever stop. We probably will see this same sort of price action until there is a clearer signal from them. Of which I doubt we will see for awhile at least.

The first level I will be looking to short from will be the highs during the US session at 1.4931 but I will want a good entry on some clear manipulation there since yesterdays high of 1.4942 are just above and they may want to do a stop run there first. If there is no clear short entry and it can move off to test the daily lows at 1.4857 I will consider a long there with the stop run to the lows. By then it most likely would show the chop for over a day and a half making the stop run trade there a low risk high reward trade with the right set up.

GBP/USD 1 hour chart on March 12, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today starting with German CPI figures. I doubt there will be much reaction here unless there is a large miss to the upside. At that point it should be Euro positive since Germany will press the ECB on inflation. 

The UK has its Manufacturing Production expected to drop close to zero. A miss to the downside will be GBP negative and will increase the chance of more Asset Purchases. The NIESR GDP estimate is later in the day expected a flat 0.0. With a disappointment here it will again be GBP negative.

The US don’t much for significant news until tomorrows Retail Sales figures.

Happy trading


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