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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 13, 2014

Today we have a first intraday push to the upside on the EUR/USD so my bias has changed and will prefer the long. Technically its still in the third push chop since they didn’t show any conviction above the highs at 1.3913 so I will be open for the short with a stop run to the highs but I will need to see that they wont let it pass with some clear trapping there. I will prefer the long with a test down to 1.3877 but if we do get conviction to the upside then the Asian lows will be where I first look to go long with a nice set up. If it can break out of this range there isn’t much significant resistance to the upside until it reaches 1.4185 so if I do get the entry long I will consider letting it run for a longer time period and give it a chance to get there over the next day or so.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD looks to be trading off intraday pushes having finished them yesterday. I do see this as sloppy at best so its safest to be open on direction. It is also technically in the third push chop so trading the high at 1.6647 for a short or the daily level it bounced off of yesterday at 1.6583 or the overall lows at 16568 for the long. Having said that there is not a clear bottoming formation either so its best to keep an open mind. With the levels in the middle of the range being riskier trades I will need very clear set ups to take the entries or will wait for a set up at the extremes of this range. The best mid range levels are the four hour 200 EMA at 1.6599 that has confluence of the Tuesday daily low and psych level for the long or yesterdays high for the short but with how close current price it to that I highly doubt it will be where the push from.

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 Forex News Today

The only significant release during the London session is the ECB monthly report. However I doubt the report will be much different than what came from the press conference so will likely be a non event.

The US has Retail Sales data and Thursday Unemployment Claims. With Retail Sales expected to rise above zero it will be bigger and more USD negative if it misses again into negative numbers. Otherwise if it does surprise to the upside then the USD may strengthen a little. As long as the Unemployment data don’t surprise big to the upside we probably wont see much movement from it. If it does then anything goes as the big boys may or may not think the taper will continue.

For those trading the Yen crosses during the Asian session tomorrow keep an eye out for the BOJ meeting minutes. It probably wont do much with the press conference yesterday but if there is something that surprises the big boys then anything goes

Happy Trading


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