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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 21, 2013

Yesterday was some kind of wild day in the markets. This whole Cyprus thing along with the UK budget announcement made the markets really jumpy to say the least. Then good old Ben chimes in with his 2 cents and they get just a little more nuts. I didn’t get a trade yesterday. I was tempted a couple times but didn’t think it was worth the risk. From what i can tell by my more reliable news sources Cyprus wont be opening their banks until next week and most likely wont have anything to vote on until this weekend even though they do keep saying things like “we will have something worked out tonight” The question is will they get something worked out at all? I think they will. The reason is they have to at least give the facade that things are all well in Europe for now. Will it actually be fixed? Heck no but at least the powers that be will have bought some more time which is the only thing they can do these days.

Its been said many times and its always worth repeating until they actually listen. You cant throw good money after bad and expect things to get better. We all know they are only buying time. Just think Greece. Sure people have forgotten about Greece for now but only because there is something worse to look at. Nothing has been fixed anywhere. Greece, Spain, Italy and now Cyprus and many more countries are all trying to do the same thing and prop the house of cards up long enough to grow their way out of a mess that no amount of growth can fix. How could even a 10% growth rate per year fix the fact that the world is mired in a financial scandal larger than we have ever seen in history? It cant. Lets just assume the world miraculously gets a 10% growth sustained this year. The boneheads that created this mess are still in powerful positions and have been paid rather than prosecuted for causing the fiasco we call the financial markets. Are we really that naive that we would think they wont do it again and get even richer as they do it? It can all be summed up in a centuries old saying about power. “Power corrupts and total power corrupts totally”  They will do it simply because they can and have gotten away with it before. Enough said.

The EUR/USD made what looks to be a push up yesterday more or less negating the push down. I wont be convinced the push down was false until I see it break and have the hourly close above Tuesdays high so my bias today is neutral on price. Since the news has been the only real driver of the market this week I do still have a slight bearish bias considering that even though they will say “we are close to a deal on Cyprus” What ever that deal is still wont be voted on until the weekend and if they haven’t removed the hit to savers totally it has a small chance of passing the vote. So getting word that something to that effect is in the works will be the only thing that will change my small fundamental short bias. 

Having said all that I will be most comfortable taking the short with a stop run to yesterdays highs of  1.2976 but will still be open for the long. The problem with a long is there inst really any great levels to take it from. At this point the best I see is around the psych level of 1.2900. I will also say there is the slight chance we get the manipulation around 1.2956 for the short but I am not really impressed with that level with the 1.2977 just above it.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart Mar. 21, 2013

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What can one say about the GBP/USD other than total whip saw. The UK has worse than expected unemployment figures but was soon to be trumped by the MPC Minutes and then the fiasco of the budget deal started. What a crazy day. At this point I am still considering most of the same levels valid as in yesterdays commentary. Mainly because the price action yesterday was all news driven and that shouldn’t be the case today. I will be a little more cautious at these levels and want to see very clear set ups but I will be watching them. 

GBP/USD 1 hour chart Mar.21, 2013

Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with French, German and Euro Zone manufacturing and Services PMI figures. Expectations are for a slight improvement on all of these but the one to watch most are the German figures. Still hovering around the 50 level a surprise drop below will be Euro negative. If by chance they do miss to the upside it will depend on how big it is to create much of a positive reaction. there is also a Spanish 10 year bond auction that I will be watching. If the Cyprus deal is having an effect this will not go well. However what I expect is more of the same and they will prop this auction up to keep the all is well attitude going.

The UK has its Retail Sales numbers expected to improve and get into positive territory. I have my doubts this will cause much reaction without a big miss. As usual a disappointment will be negative for the GBP and I think it will take a larger miss to the upside to be positive.

The US has weekly Unemployment Claims expected to rise by 10K. As usual a spike up and it will be USD negative and the opposite for a drop. Later is the Existing Home Sales data expected to rise . Wouldn’t it be nice if the US housing market keeps improving? With the way they skew the data and keep a lot of foreclosures off the market I am still not convinced but it does look good. Lastly is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index expected to improve but still be below zero. At this point my thoughts are that only a spike above zero will have much positive reaction and of course a drop negative.

Happy Trading


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