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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis March 27th 2014

The movement on the EURUSD yesterday looks an awful lot like the GBP/USD on Tuesday but in the opposite direction giving us a clue on what direction they could break it today with the daily close on its lows. It also looks much like there is a risk aversion move with the USD/JPY moving down along with the S&P 500. The sure sign will be if they continue the move today and break and close below the daily support on the S&P along with the currency pars following suit. Having said that I am not going to have a bias for the short as of yet because we haven’t seen any conviction on direction along with the move being well below the current average daily range of the EU. I will however be open for the more aggressive short from the middle of the range with some clear manipulation at the 1.3805 level that was rejected hard twice yesterday around the London close.

I will also be open for the long at the lows today but will want to see them push up during the Asian session first widening the range and then come back to hit the breakout traders at yesterdays lows at the four hour 200 EMA. Otherwise if they hold the range tight get them in at the lows before a run up to the 1.3805 level then I will be happy to short with a clear set up. If 1.3805 don’t hold they will likely test yesterdays highs and I will look to short there also if I am not already long from the lows.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has made a clean first push to the upside so I will be bias for the long today. As I mentioned in yesterdays commentary the high daily close looked a bit suspicious and sure enough they ended up pushing it upward. This does not agree with the risk aversion scenario described above but it had quite a bit of help from the EUR/GBP having a clear second push down yesterday. In order for us to get the second push today it will need that help again while the EU at least holds its range or breaks down on a smaller scale than the EG does.

The best level I see for the long right now is down at 1.6558 where the break out support is but if they manage to push it up during Asia to test the highs I will be open for the long at the Asian lows. The only way I will consider a short against this push is if they do the stop run to the highs during the London session today showing they wont let price pass and close beyond. There is a significant daily breakout level it stopped at yesterday so that may hold it down but I will need something rather clear to change the bias for the long.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The only significant data releases during the London session is UK Retail Sales figures. Expected to get a bump above the negative numbers of the last release, if it can come out as expected or better than we should see the next push up on the GU.

Later in the day the US has Thursday Unemployment Claims that is released with GDP data. The only way I see the jobs data trumping GDP is with a large miss. Otherwise as long as the GDP is as expected or better then we should see some USD strength. If it does disappoint then its a toss up as to how much of a miss to the downside it will take to make them think QE may be back and we get USD weakness.

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