Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis May 20, 2013
Looking at the EUR/USD this Monday morning I see a couple different scenarios we should be considering. The first is we have three long term pushes down. This is the higher probability scenario mainly because the push to the upside on Thursday last week didn’t have the momentum to take the stops above the 1.2941 level. If it did then it would be clear to me they intend to keep pushing it down and we would have a first push down looking to see the second push down today. Price is also coming up on a major daily low at 1.2753 and is finding the demand we would expect in the range between 1.2855 and 1.2753. This tells me that there is a higher chance to see the reversal today even if it only goes for 50+ pips and chop around before it makes a run south.
The second scenario of course is the push Thursday really being a false push and we have the first push down. Having said that as members know we can trade against first pushes because of the fact they may be fake outs. Therefore my bias will be for the reversal long but I will be keeping my mind open for the short. The levels that have the best probability for a long position are limited though and the lows at 1.2796 is best due to it being at the psych 1.2800 level. The 1.2813 level has shown some good support but the manipulation will have to be very nice to take a trade there and I will want an entry that gets my stop well below the lows.
Otherwise if we can get the Asian box to widen up by another 10 pips or so the Asian highs at 1.2846 this morning will be a good place to see an entry short. I would prefer to see the stop run since there is the 1.2855 level just above but as long as the price action is clear I will be willing to take the short from 1.2846 but will want a good entry as usual.
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The GBP/USD is showing us a more clear situation and this is the pair I will prefer to trade today. With the false push up Thursday last week and a clear long term push down Friday I will be bias for the short today. We also have a daily close below a significant level around the 1.5195 level telling me that their bias is down for the GBP. We already have a test and rejection of the psych 1.5200 level so that would be the best place to see a stop run during the London session today. Since we already have a 35 pip range during Asia this morning it may not get there if price leaves the Asian box at its lows. I prefer to see it leave around the middle to feel confident they will do the stop run to 1.5200. Otherwise I will be looking at the hourly conviction close below the 1.5156 level and want to see manipulation against it for a short somewhere in the Asian range but I will want some clear price action and a good entry and my stop above the Asian highs.
As you can see by the red lines this first push could also be 2 intraday pushes but either way we are looking for the short and this does make my first push bias south a little stronger.
I am open for a long from a stop run to the lows but I want the EUR/USD to agree on USD weakness.
Forex News Today
In short there isn’t anything worth mentioning on scheduled releases. There is a Fed Member Evans speech. If he does a turn around on his dovish stance it will be USD positive but I have my doubts he will.
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