Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis November 18, 2013
The EUR/USD stayed in the over all range Friday not showing any conviction to break the highs so I will be open for either direction today. With price being in closer proximity to the highs I would prefer the stop run there for the short. Having said that since they did close Friday right at the highs of the day there is the chance for the long today also. The best level to see the manipulation for the long is around 1.3470 where the hourly 200 is also sitting. There is also the breakout support sitting just below at 1.3461 so some clear trapping patterns in that area will get me long. This would be an aggressive entry due to it being in the middle of the range so I will be watching closely since it could also test the lows from Friday or Thursday with no clear direction for today. If they do push it that low during the London session I will be looking for the long during the US session. If by chance it breaks to the upside with some hourly conviction I will look for the long on the pullback.
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The GBP/USD has made another push to the upside going into extended intraday pushes or has seen the third long term push. Either way we should seeing a reversal today. It has come into some daily resistance at 1.6129 that will take some conviction to break. I will prefer the stop run to the highs for the short on this pair today but I will also be open for the long from the range between 1.6100-1.6089. However in order to give the long more probability it would be best to see them at least test the highs during the Asian session this morning before we get some trapping in that range.
The potential that we do get the break to the upside is real as the US is expected to keep up the print fest. The GBP/USD has all the way to 1.6247 if this daily level breaks while the Euro has more potential to be stopped at 1.3527 since they are expected to power up their printing presses also. Having said that Germany may well stop and printing by the ECB so if that happens the Euro has a long way to go to its highs too.
Forex News Today
The economic calendar is rather bare today. There is a few Fed member speeches so its always a good idea to keep an eye out for those. I have my doubts there will be much movement since thy are not from Janet Yellen but if they slip and admit they will be upping the print fest then the break to the upside will happen on both pairs most likely.
The US does have TIC Long Term Transactions but in order for this to create a sustained move it will need to miss big to the downside showing that foreign investors are running from US debt of which is only a matter of time from what I understand.
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Update on helping the typhoon victims
The trip went very well. I decided to let our neighbor handle the first test delivery to make sure the donations would get to where they intended and the news we got back was very good along with the pictures. Below are just a few. Our contribution is what you see in the back of the truck which is about $150 worth of goods which will feed just over 50 small families for a day. Next week there should be much more thanks to other donations. I will be replying to all the emails we received about helping later today once I work out the logistics of receiving the money. I would prefer it go through my friend Larry Mally with Operation New Face so the contributions will be tax deductible but I am not sure yet. Thanks for all the offers guys and we could always use more. I personally guarantee every cent minus bank and paypal fees will get to those in need. Thanks again.