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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis November 25, 2013

The EUR/USD did give us the second push last Friday. As you can see once it showed the conviction above Thursdays highs it never looked back. Today I will have the bias for the third push up but being a Monday it does have the slightly lower chance of breaking the highs. The best level for the long is down at the four hour 200 ema around 1.3520 but there is also  a good level above there at 1.3536 so I will be open for the long there but will need to see the conviction during London before seeing the manipulation due to the close proximity to current price. If for some reason I miss the long today and it runs to test the daily highs at 1.3578 with a clear third push I will be willing to take the short during the NY session for the pullback.

1hr EU chart

The GBP/USD did not make a full push Friday holding in a small chop until the end of the day and closed on its highs. I will still be bias for the long on this pair today. The issue here is that it is coming up on a significant daily level at 1.6247 and has some overall highs at 1.6259 that it will take some conviction to break. Having said that it sure looks like the conviction could be there with not much selling going on at these levels. The gap up this morning has already closed and its finding support at the psych 1.6220 level so there is the chance it goes off from there but the better level for manipulation will be lower closer to the 1.6200 level. If it leaves the Asian box closer to the highs then the 1.6220 level has a higher probability but if it leaves at the lows then they will most likely test down lower.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The economic calendar is slow today with only US Pending Home Sales later in the day. This means we have a better chance of seeing a more normal push day but if the recent history holds and they are waiting for some central bank to make a move then it will be a slow moving Monday like we have seen more of lately.

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