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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis October 17, 2013

WE HAVE A DEAL!! Well we almost have a deal to reopen the US government and raise the debt ceiling. It still has to pass the vote in the House of Representatives but I have a feeling it will go through. My understanding is its just the band-aid to get us to February next year when we will do this all over again. Lets just enjoy the calmer markets for the next few months. Not that there is not enough besides the debt issue in the US to freak out the big boys so we will have to wait and see.

The EUR/USD stayed in the range as I suspected, however I did manage to catch the short for 60 pips from 1.3558 and didn’t hold for the break of the lows since the entry was at the highs of the day. I will cover this in detail in the London training session today.

Today I expect more of the same holding in this range between 1.3600 and 1.3470. There is nothing giving me a clear bias so I will be open on direction. Even if the deal passes the house its questionable what the big boys will do with it. We could easily see risk on and the Euro strengthen or the opposite as the thoughts of the US being the cleaner dirty shirt. Therefor looking to go either direction from the more significant levels is the safest trade plan today. The best place for a short is at yesterdays highs but with Tuesdays highs just a little above they may take stops there before they move it down. Something tells me the probability for a long is better as long as the deal goes through but the levels aren’t good at all. We have the Asia lows at 1.3515 but other than that Tuesdays lows is much better. I don’t like the 1.3506 that much because it was violated pretty good yesterday but it did have good reaction over two days.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD whipped breaking the highs and lows of the range clearing the breakout traders and if I look at price action alone the last fake out was to the lows so even though I cant hold a clear bias on direction the probability is slightly for a push up today also. If we get some conviction above the 1.5968 level during the London session it will increase that and I will be open for the long at the Asia lows. Otherwise the best levels are around 1.5914 with the 4hr 200 ema in close proximity but the set up will need to be very nice since it was broke yesterday. The same goes for a short at the 1.6006 or 1.6017. The hourly 200 is close but I will be very particular on any trapping moves on this pair today. I am not in any hurry to give back part of my profits from yesterday and more than likely will be looking at other pairs with clearer bias on direction.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

Again we don’t have much that has potential to take focus off the US debt deal. There is UK Retail Sales data expected to improve on the monthly figures but remain flat on the yearly. Barring a very large miss we probably wont see much.

The US has more Fed speak and Thursday Unemployment data and both will probably get ignored if the deal or no deal news comes out of the House of Representatives which actually should be shortly.

Happy Trading


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