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Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis October 29, 2013

The EUR/USD is still in a state of confusion with no clear direction. I have a feeling we may get more of the same price action today since we have the FOMC meeting and Interest Rate decision tomorrow. Unless there is a leak of sorts we probably wont see any conviction move today. There was an attempt at some USD strength this morning while the GU made a break but they soaked it up with the EUR/GBP holding the EU inside the range still. Obviously they saw the GBP as weaker most likely due some comments from the BOE Miles saying “The GBP/USD was pressured by BOE’s Miles words, stating that it would be “pretty catastrophic” to raise rates before unemployment in the UK is down by a meaningful amount.” Hint- if rates rise on their own we get more asset purchases

During the London session I will be looking for conviction to give me an idea on direction. The chance of this is low and any break for conviction to the downside will be treated cautiously with the two levels just below Mondays lows. I will most likely be avoiding this pair today.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has made this move giving us some conviction during the Asian session on the news and I expect during the London session they will pull price back before they continue or more likely hold price in this range until the FOMC tomorrow. This will be the pair I watch closer for the short but as you can see there are three pushes into some daily support at 1.6057 so there may not be enough conviction to push it through before the Fed has its say tomorrow. The best place for an entry is the range between 1.6114-24 so that’s where I will prefer to see the trapping for the short. They may run it off from a lower level but it wont be worth the risk for the potential reward unless it breaks down. If there is a clear entry I will just hold with the stop at break even and see if it breaks.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is bare until the US session again today when we have US Retail Sales, PPI figures and CB consumer Confidence later in the day. With the Fed coming up tomorrow there will need to be a large miss on these to get a reaction and I still doubt there will be conviction unless they disappoint big. This will be USD negative and they will spike back into the range and possibly break the EU to the upside thinking the Fed will print. But will they? Its hard to say. they will probably want to keep the party going but it seems not matter what they bring the buzz is wearing off. We will have to wait and see.

Happy trading


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