Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis September 24, 2013
The EUR/USD today looks to be more in confusion mode rather than showing any direction. The hourly close below Fridays lows does show some conviction to the downside but I can also see three rather clear intraday pushes to the downside. I will admit they are missing a few of the criteria that we expect to see when considering them tradable but the form and clarity is there. With the average daily range tightening up its possible we will see the reversal today but I wont be having a full bias for the long. I would prefer to see the stop run to the lows in order to take it from around 1.3478.
Considering the fact we have quite a few more members of the Fed speaking this week and they are expected to do a little back peddling on the no taper shock they did last week then if that does happen the EU will push down and close the inefficient move caused by the Fed. I would be willing to bet that good old Ben Bernanke woke up to a few nasty messages in his inbox Saturday from central bankers in Europe saying something to the effect of “What the heck are you trying to do to us!!”I assume that’s the PG version and Ben got more of the NC-17 version. 🙂
Since I am keeping an open mind and there is the Fed speeches to consider the best level for a short is around 1.3514 but if we see the hourly close below yesterdays lows I will only look for the short and consider the Asian highs at Fridays lows for an entry also.
The GBP/USD made the reversal I mentioned in yesterdays commentary making what looks like a stop run above Fridays highs showing the potential for the false push. I will have a small bias for the next push but if they make the push down on the Euro this will likely follow suit unless the Eur/Gbp runs heavily and the EU and GU run opposite directions. I do see that as unlikely if the Fed speeches go as expected but as I have said before nothing surprises me with these markets anymore.
The best level I see for the potential long is the 1.6014 area and with the psych level of 1.6020 just above they may stop it there. Having said that I will be cautious since there are the two daily levels just below just below 1.6000 they might run it to also. The best short opportunity is around 1.6062 but with the heavy selling that went on there over the last two trading days the chance they do a stop run there is lower unless there are enough there to make it worth their while. Otherwise I will be looking for the signs that they just wont let it run above and get the best entry short just in case they do make the stop run so my stop is well above the highs.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare today with only German Ifo Business Climate during the London session. With the disappointing Manufacturing figures yesterday this has a slight chance of doing the same and Ben will probably be getting more nasty emails and phone calls if it does.
The US only has CB Consumer Confidence expected to drop a bit but whether or not it can trump the two Fed speeches later if they do start the back tracking on the no taper talk is doubtful. It will get a bump if it misses but will need to be better than expected in order to add to the fuel to the upside for the USD. The way I see it considering the other US data the chance is low that it misses to the upside.
If you want to check out the schedule of the Fed member speeches you can see them here. We do get a break on Wednesday but they kick in heavy again Thursday and Friday.
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